It will really depend on step out tests by operators. The first indicator will be a test in the middle of Wetzel and one in the middle of Tyler. Those two tests will give an indication of how the formation is changing from Ohio border moving east and south. Ohio is having test wells in Washington County, more towards the center, but it is drier gas and will also help determine the movement of the play going South. Main problem you will have with the Utica is over cooked regions due to depth and time. The deeper you go with dry gas the more over pressured you are as well, if you have been tracking some developments in Ohio over the past year there have been multiple blowouts in dry gas areas due to drilling issues. There is really only one company in the area that is experienced in over pressured regions and that is Stone due to their Gulf assets. The thickness also dissipates as you move east and south as you have stated (attached thickness map to this reply). Good and bad pricing has helped slowdown the production of the formations in Appalachia giving people time to catch their breath. Big thing will be when leases expire, what will be the going rate? Land owners are smarter now and if the Marcellus has not been drilled yet can lease just that formation and hold onto Utica rights until the "right" price is offered. We are seeing Utica acreage in Wetzel and Monroe Ohio going for 6-8k/acre.
Big thing to keep track of now as things are slowing down is auditing companies on wells you are involved in,it does not say that you think they are screwing you but allows for companies to be honest with land owners. Multiple lawsuits lately over post-production costs, in WV there was a major lawsuit that went in favor of land owners. Also with the large breakup of mineral rights in WV also a good idea to make sure you are being paid for wells that your minerals are included in. Have had multiple clients when we review their acreage have had wells that they have not been paid for. It happens but people need to be careful and vigilant.
1116-Utica_Shale_Thickness_Map.jpg (477 KB)