Spraberry Production Rate Decline

[Scott_Tiller]

Good Morning -

What is the general prodution decline and life expectancy of a Howard County Spraberry well with a 2-3 mile lateral?

Thanks, SAT

[DonnaL]

Curious to see a answer from others. We are to your south east on section 33. I have been attempting some predictions by looking at production reports on the RRC.

[AJ11]

If the well is operated by a publicly traded company [SM, Oxy, etc.] you might find a production type curve in an quarterly earnings call powerpoint / slide deck.

[PeteR]

Also if you use the magnifying glass icon for this forum, see extensive discussion of 3 mile laterals by Roy and NMOilboy from October 2021.

[NMoilboy]

Something like this, maybe (it varies across the county). But this is a nice one because it starts at 1000 bopd so you can pretty easily see the ratios at subsequent times

This was only 10 years, but a well is probably going to be economic for 30-40 years, decline should get really flat at lower rates. A 3 mile lateral is going to make a bit more in the beginning and decline slightly slower.

[DonnaL]

Do you have one of these charts for Gas?

[NMoilboy]

Sure, I live to serve. Same wells (fixed axis scale)

Qi=1150 Di=1.386 B=0.95

This is just an example of someplace in Howard, may or may not fit your wells but probably not far off. Gas will decline slower.

[Judy_Jordan]

Thank you NMoilboy for this workup for both oil and gas. I understand that there are lots of potential variables for each owner / location, but this is a super visual. Another example of why we teach math above the levels of balancing a check book… (Old guidance counselors don’t die, we just retire and follow mineral forums online.)

[DonnaL]

Thank you I appreciate your time.