Jason:
The other variable we learned as laymen who researched the O&G industry, contracts, etc., with, I should add, the assistance of an O&G attorney, is that exploration companies target areas in a given county, based on 3-D seismic studies and availability of rigs. So, although you can wait for what you deem is optimal pricing, if you have, say, 300 acres, and miss the window when a given company is exploring 6 or 7 thousand acres, inclusive, of yours, you could foreclose an opportunity that might not present itself again for some time.
So, for example, there are about 1,700 square miles in Sheridan County, and there are 640 acres per square mile, for a total of 1,088,000 acres. As you can see from this map http://geology.com/usgs/bakken-formation-oil.shtml, the Bakken covers most/all of Sheridan County, although there are obviously favorable and less favorable areas for exploration.
The goal is to catch the wave or cycle at the optimal time when your needs and the top market pricing are most closely aligned. Charles is correct that productive wells in relatively close proximity to your land increases the value of yours; however, there’s chicken/egg or dovetailed effect at work here, insofar as exploration companies and landmen have pre-set parameters for defined areas and unless you’re willing to wait for an entirely new cycle–two, three, five years?–you could miss what amounts to a very competitive price based on the limits of those parameters.
It’s a judgment call, and although I agree with Charles in counseling patience and not appearing overly interested, there are economic limits to what a company will offer you, based on the expense/revenue pro formas they’ve developed, long in advance of negotiating with any particular MR owner.