Hey Van,
17% would be good but I would be inclined to look for 3/16th. However, at the end of the day, it is all up to you based off of your current financial status, etc. I don’t think you need to rush any because I don’t see a ton of movement in that area until the price of oil comes up. The other thought is that if you can get them on a 3 year lease with a bonus, maybe they don’t drill during that time and you get more bonus money. 17% might not be so bad if they are offering you a good bonus…
Van S Mabrito said:
Again, Jon, thanks so much for your very helpful input.
Just to clarify, considering that our parcels are not in the Bakken area but the apparently smaller and less productive Botteneau area I believe that is east of Bakken, would your minimum of 3/16 still hold? Another broker who I believe I know and trust offered 17% acknowledging that it was that low due to the low prices.
Again, many thanks!
Jon Adams said:
Hey Van,
I looked at your minerals on the North Dakota minerals web page and it looks like they are in the Madison formation. From looking at the production, there is some production in that area although nothing as prolific as the Bakken in McKenzie/Dunn/Mountrail/Williams. With that being said, there are some wells in your general area doing a thousand barrels of oil or more per month. Here is the reasoning why the ownership interest is the key. For ease of math, let’s say that oil is selling for $50 a barrel and you have a well doing 1000 barrels a month. With a 3/16th rate you would get around $100/mo., $88 a month with the 1/6th, and $108 with the 1/5th. I know these amounts seem insignificant but you can now see why sacrificing some bonus money for a better ownership interest will benefit you in the long run realizing that these wells can run for quite some time.
I have always been under the premise that a lower time frame on the lease is better and a primary lease is all we have ever done. I don’t want to be tied to a company for 5 years no matter who it is when it comes to a lease. If they are serious about drilling, then it won’t take them 5 years to do it.
I agree with your assumption about oil prices. It’s just my personal opinion but if we are talking about supply and demand then eventually prices will rebound. Low prices are going to cause some companies to either go bankrupt or merge. That’s just a fact. Active rigs in the Bakken are down now to roughly 156 rigs which is about 30 less than were operating just last summer. With less rigs drilling new wells, and the steep decline that these wells typically have, the amount of oil coming out of North Dakota will go down. I also don’t believe that Saudi Arabia is going to continue to sell their oil at $50 over a sustained period because they need a certain amount of money to make their social programs whole. I understand they have vast reserves but at some point I think they will slow it down. So the less oil on the market, the higher the price has to be. Now is this two months, three months, two years? Who knows but the price will rebound eventually, and when it does the price of your acres will go up. I guess what I am trying to say is that I would not rush into anything, but I also don’t know your financial status and your current needs. I never like it when people say do this or do that without a full understanding of where you are at.
To find out the leasing companies, you can call the actual operators that I listed above and ask them who they lease through. Diamond, Lone Tree Energy, Kasmer and Afhadt are a few that our family has gone through but this is over a long period of time going back to the 80’s. Your best bet is to start with the operator and tell them you have some acres and were looking at leasing them. If you get some offers, I would not hesitate to go back and forth between a few. They are your acres and it’s your money. You need to get the best out of it for you and your family. Also realize that the offer you just got probably won’t change much so there is not a ton of pressure to sign now. We currently have some acres that we are not leasing right now just due to the economic climate. Maybe when prices come up we will get more serious about leasing them but I don’t see any rush right now.
Hope this helps.