Oil to water ratio where's the beef?

What can be antisapated from production as time increases after fracing. I am thinking frac back flow is measurable but really? 25 days of production only 638bbls oil yet 75,549bbl water and flare as loud as a F18 turbo at launch from aircraft carrier. Stony Run horizontal in Madison file # 33148, pad with no pump on sec 27 drilled N into sec 22 and 15 in 163 90 Burke Co. Apparently this site has potential because from here a confidential well was drilled to the south. As soon as the well was completed the Company asked for my adjacent quarter and I found that this starts next to a recently permitted well drill site. It may have to do with the newly drilled disposal well in the same quarter centered between these two paired wells. Therefore when will the frac water subside and does the power of the flare indicate a quality free flowing well. To much for this dirt scratch farmer/rancher too know.

Gary, water doesn't have to be a factor at all if there is a disposal well on the lease they could just pipe the water to it and pump it down. I've seen a vertical Madison well that has produced a million barrels of oil and 10 million barrels of salt water with a SWD well on lease. If you have to truck the salt water and pay to send it down someone else's well the cost of salt water disposal increase exponentially. I would recommend not worrying about that part and let the operator worry about it. If someone tried to talk down the value of my acres because of excess water production, I would just tell them I'm not interested then because it isn't worth my time and see if they change their tune. If they are worried about water, they will have a plan to deal with it or they wouldn't be bothering you.

rw Thanks for the rapid response but in attempt of brevity I confused my concern. I have the first results of a well in my quarter.on the same pad is a tight hole into someone’s to the south. Next to the road they drilled a desposal well. Across the road in 28 they have a permit to drill 28 and 33 And just got my lease to drill 21 and my quarter in 16. My question is what am I missing in this picture. There is no profit in drilling at 25bbls oil a day. And 3021bbls water a day. Yet they have this paired and plan to pair that in 28 with their new yet to be plumbed disposal well. Which will cost me for disposal but not as much as to truck it. How long must I wait to get a reasonable prediction of the probable output. Or is this the best it will produce. My dye is cast and just wondering what the checks will be when cashed.

Gary, I see now. Bad news is you probably won't know the real story on water/oil production for months yet. They did pump 52,000 barrels of fluid down the well when stimulating. Looking at the well file I get a sense they are pumping the heck out of it to get rid of the water. The operator requested leave to not perform a static pressure test because the wellbore would fill with water which would hamper oil production.

I would bear in mind that they can't produce the salt water and oil any faster than they can get rid of it. You have to give it time. I know it's not easy waiting but the information we do have is what was reported 5 weeks ago. It's just too early to to make any judgment calls.

Thanks again. As you presume I am piecing fragments of info. Second hand Info from windshield viewing and data from wells in other fields and my level of NDIC limited info without subscription. You verified the possible adverse data of my fears. My cousin 20 years ago had a nearby verticle well grossing adaquate oil but net dollars insufficient because of excess water so it was capped. As one travels east water problems increase. As you can presume at age 71 my interest is dollars where as Petro Harvester has three benefits. Exploring the edge of this field for profitability and not going beyond. Cash flow at least enough to keep it open and slow pay back. And holding this hole in perpetuity waiting for technology or market to adjust long term outlook. You eased my shock of massive water not seen by me in other wells by verifying it as fact and time will tell of this wells value. Thanks for your willingness to help this ol’ hide. I hope this blip of info added to the edges of your wealth of information. Gary

Gary I will send you a friend request. Remind me in two months and I will look again and see if anything new has popped up in the well file.