Oil to spike above $100/bbl soon


Trump’s agenda and his relationship with Saudi Arabia is very pertinent to the oil and gas industry. How else do you think fracking was unleashed. Certainly not the previous administration’s blessing.


IMH- let’s keep political opinions and perseptions in a separate catigory from what is happening in real life, real time, on the ground in Reeves. Political opinions can have there own category, but in the general discussion category, they are a distraction at best and an irritant at worst. We get bombarded with politicts on the news and have to sort what is pertinent to us out from that. So let’s not bring that format into this forum. We who do not live in Reeves are so lucky to have people with expertise there, on location who can keep us informed. That is so important and valuable.


I dislike long winded political discussions anywhere…I’m all about RESULTS…but IF you absentee mineral and surface landlords insist on no discussion of politics and those running for office in these ‘hot oil/gas prospect’ areas of Texas…how are you gonna know who will defend and enhance your royalty and surface damages income? You don’t want a bunch of lying promises/talk…you want proven RESULTS…but you get the truth by listening to other minerals/surface owners who’ve dealt with that politician before. They’ll uncover the rats, the traitors to the US People and Constitution because it directly affects their income too.

So, I’m not for anyone on the MRF trying to regulate political discussion as it pertains to oil and gas production. This forum needs to stay free wheeling and instantly responsive to the changing conditions in the oil and gas patch of west Texas in general. After all, we are all interested in gathering true INTELLIGENCE regarding oil and gas exploration and production.

My not so humble opinion, FWIW.

ol’ Lawrence in Verhalen, Reeves county, Tx :sunglasses::rofl::rainbow::stars::ribbon:


So… We can still keep the politicts to a specific area on the forum and not pepper the everything with it. I live in DC, believe me everyone has a strong opinion that spills over in to daily life and often in the same family you find a lot of contention. It would be nice to put that aside and stick to the facts on certain subjects. Just keep the political stuff in its own category. That way the information can be deserned from opinions.


I’m not willing to be boxed in or pigeon holed on this or any forum. My opinions come with my information…take it or leave it…it’s your decision…you have the delete key.
The oil and gas industry lives or dies by the political/business climate…and if YOU land/mineral absentee owners insist on electing environmental wacko liberal socialists to office in opposition to the best oil and gas business development practices…then you deserve it when they tax the industry into the ground and destroy your income while compromising national security…making the nation unsafe for all of us.
Unfortunately, you drag all us conservatives with you because we’re all US/American citizens…and this is our ONLY nation.
My not so humble opinion.

ol’ Lawrence in Verhalen, Reeves county, Tx :sunglasses::rofl::rainbow::stars::heart:


Well, as for me, I’m interested in what others think of different politicians. I agree with Lawrence, how are we going to make an informed decision if we refuse input? There is that delete button, and if you don’t want to read that portion, or that person’s input, you’re free not to. But why take that right away from the rest of us who would like to read and inform ourselves?


I think there is a section for political discussion, or there used to be. I obviously have not sought it out. I just don’t understand why some people want to muzzle others. Can’t you just agree to disagree with someone else’s point of view? If I see a post by someone I don’t agree with, I just ignore what they have to say. But I don’t try to silence them.


:handshake: :blush:*******


I agree. The political “talk” on this forum tends to be too much about name calling and anger, not intelligent discourse or explanation of viewpoint. That is why I think it would be a lot more tolerable to at least be forewarned about the content of posts like that in order to avoid them or engage in them.


I have not seen ANY name calling on this forum…I’ve seen very few disgruntled posts at all here. So, I think you’re over-reacting to some perceived slight.
I’m a cheerleader (see my pompoms?:rofl:) for the development of the oil and gas industry of the western Permian and all the Delaware basins. This is where I was born and grew up, have lived all my life. I want the best for the families living here because all my life this area has been ‘flyover America’…our government and so called ‘leaders’ never cared about those of us that did the grunt work BUILDING the oil and gas fields here. When I came into this world, my Dad was making 99 CENTS/hour, less than $3400/YEAR. Everyone I knew had parents struggling to raise them better than they had it before WWII…and they all worked HARD for the meager livings they made working in the oil and gas industry of this area. Now the ‘kids’ are working out here and earning $140,000/year and griping about how ‘hard’ they have to work and how expensive everything is. I still want the best for them, and that means WE, the People need to choose better political representatives who will help the laborers have the best standard of living in the world by making the political and business/economic climate favorable to their success.
If we can get $100/bbl for oil and LNG…then I say ‘GO for it!’…but let’s make taking care of our own American Citizens our first priority.
ol’ Lawrence in Verhalen, Reeves county, Tx :sunglasses::rofl::rainbow::stars:


Lawrence is one of the people on this forum that adds value. Also, the energy industry like many others is entwined in government and government regulations influenced by politicians. I believe it is extremely relevant and I need to know which politicians support us and which don’t. I’m extremely surprised you don’t find that valuable.


Inflation adjusted, $10.62 an hour today. Given the physical demands of the work, not very much.




Politics aside. Is oil really going to $100/mo?

Oil is down 20% this month. Maybe it will stay there, maybe it won’t. There doesn’t appear to be an Iran shock to the system. Leasing and mineral prices have been riding a wave of extrapolative expectations for > year now, almost enough for everyone to think that is the new norm. Like real estate in California in 2007. But that’s only sustainable as long as there is more money/optimism to feed the extrapolation. And there is a price floor on that. You start testing that oil price floor and things could go very very wonky.

No big deal, we are all used to boom and bust. But it’s very easy to convince oneself that it’s only boom. Like politics I have virtually no control over it (I unfortunately don’t live in Loving County with 60 voters) so I’m not going to sweat it much.


One reason that there may not have been an Iran price shock is that Trump has granted waivers to quite a few countries in order to give them time to make a transition. I have no idea if they really will make the transition, but at this moment Iran can still sell to them with Trump’s blessing. The future is, well, the future and who the heck knows! :smile:


The jump in price of WTI to over $100/bbl is coming. Iran and Saudi Arabia are subsidizing each other and fulfilling contracts with clients across the Middle East and with Russia and China…all with oil and gas produced by Infidel labor for which they are having to pay $50 to $250/hour. Neither can sustain increased supply to meet the demands because they are paying so much in labor, they are going in the hole each month for income. Yet their stubborn adherence to their religious beliefs leave them in an untenable position business wise. The USA is still selling oil for $60/bbl to all takers…and we have a glut…so expect Saudi Arabia and Iran’s clients to come to the USA to make their deals. Therefore, the Islamic nations of the Middle East will be forced to drastically change something to raise the price of oil back to a level where they can make a profit. Look at the Dow Jones today…up over 500 points…back above 26,000. Expect it to climb to 30,000 by Christmas as the unrest grows in the Middle East.

ol’ Lawrence in Verhalen, Reeves county, Tx :sunglasses::rofl::rainbow::stars::star_struck:


The very best thing President Trump did was to remove Obama’s bony foot from the neck of good old American economic activity. Trump does understand business and that “America First” is the best plan of action. Free markets work. We cannot allow murderous middle east animals to control our activities. Kashoggi was extremely stupid for going in to the Saudi embassy.


Laugh. I know plenty of infidels working here in the US oil industry for $50-250/hr who aren’t doing a damn thing.

Saudi’s oil business, as a standalone enterprise, is much much much more profitable than a US major oil company. At whatever oil price. Way lower G&A per barrel of oil, way lower CAPEX/OPEX. Their issue is not just that Aramco has to pay some Westerners (and way more non-Westerners), and provide a great living for 70,000 employees and the 15:1 ratio or whatever of jobs created by each high paying oil job. Aramco has to support just about everyone in the country. All 33 million of them. O&G labor costs isn’t killing them, having to cover the handouts and social programs for a rapidly growing population without much diversification is killing them. That’s the part that is not sustainable. Hence the austerity programs and attempts to diversify away from oil and overpaid public sector jobs. You just can’t run a deficit near 10% of your GDP for very long before it explodes.

Yeah, if oil is $80 a barrel or something they have less of a national deficit. But then they can’t cut programs, keep subsidizing fuel, get pressured to add programs they won’t be able to remove, etc. And then screw themselves even harder for the future. Sound familiar?

Yeah, IMO they do some fairly uncool stuff on citizen’s rights and gender issues. In many economics ways, they are not so different from us (or lots of other places). We both run on a deficit because we can’t get anybody to willingly give up what they feel they are owed, even if that means borrowing to cover it. And a deficit is easier to stomach than unrest/riots. There the social contract is handouts/subsidies in order to keep the regime in power. Here the social contract is also mostly payments to individuals (SS, Healthcare, pensions) in order to get votes and stay in power. Hell, try cutting SS from 2% growth down to 1.8% growth and your butt is going to be out of politics. Buying off the populace, in either place, requires a lot of deficit spending. Fortunately ours only runs 3% of GDP or so, so we can keep it going for a lot longer. In the end, all you do is default, refuse to pay full-price to the Chinese or whomever owns your debt…restructure and start over. But yeah, the Saudi leadership’s stubborn adherence to wanting to be rich and in control has put them in a possibly untenable position.


You’ve got a good point, Zacate. My wife and I like more income, sure we do. But we realize that it’s not all about us. $100 a barrel hurts a lot of folk.


An international analyst on Fox News Varney & Co today said he thinks that US oil has reached its projected floor of $58/bbl and he expects OPEC and other producing nations to now make moves to bring the price of US crude up above $75/bbl and to peak around $120/bbl in two years…and to try to maintain Saudi crude above $100/bbl.
I’m no professional analyst, but I think they are right until Trump is re-elected in November of 2020. Until then I expect the Delaware and other US domestic production areas to blow and go as never before…but then a blowout in the Middle East that will cause a worldwide economic Depression. So, get what you can while you can…and I recommend putting it into TANGIBLES…land, home, means to produce your own electricity, drinking water, and raise your own food…IF we go to a worldwide Depression. JMHO… ol’ Lawrence in Verhalen, Reeves county, Tx :sunglasses::rofl::rainbow::stars::ribbon: