Well, until you get to participate as a non-operated working interest owner with such a large company, you won’t be able to learn how risky and expensive that can get. It will likely require you to have a lawyer who is experienced in oil & gas participation. The expenses can get out of hand very quickly for small investors. If you are worth $50 million, you can afford the risk probably. Participating as a non-operator can be full of headaches and frustration, and as you pointed out, you could lose it all.
You are also correct in stating “the payback is much greater,” but then, the costs of a horizontal Bakken well, fracs, etc., can be really huge. You also need to know how big the unit will be and how much of your gross and net mineral acreage interest will be in the unit, to determine your working interest. You will also probably have to get up to speed on AFE’s, maybe an operating agreement and more, as well as your rights under the agreements that will control between you and Hess.
This is not a simple thing either, not as simple as folks would like to think. You can probably also get some idea of the potential of the well by evaluating the current production of offset wells, and if you can find the data, pressure over time and production, you can probably determine the ultimate recovery of wells in your area. This is pretty vital information, since if this is a big well area, the rewards can be “much greater.” I would also think this sort of information can be acquired, maybe not the pressure data, but the total production data can certainly be obtained.
I would personally think Hess would rather pay more money and higher royalty than to be in the practice of taking on a lot of small non-operators who are mineral owners in the units it gets formed (that is not the game they play, allowing private individuals to participate on the ground floor getting the benefit of Hess’s expertise; it’s not their business model at all). Very interesting to hear that Hess is even considering this. It might be a bluff by Hess. At 3/16ths royalty, I would almost think it has to be bluff. But I could certainly be wrong.
Alternatively, Hess may just be considering the state penalty it can recover where it cannot get a mineral owner to agree. I don’t know what the forced pooling statutes or rules in North Dakota are, but I’m sure they exist. Hess has operated in Louisiana off and on for many years, and they face a pretty strict forced pooling set of rules in Louisiana.
North Dakota mineral owners, especially wealthy ones, probably have a real opportunity since ND units seem to be geographic. The key is in knowing what the production of a proposed well will be, and that is something that can be quantified. And also whether they have the right to participate as a non-operator on a heads-up basis with an operator like Hess, which is very, very big and very knowledgeable.