Lea County NM Lease Offer - how much weight on operator quality?

Hi all — long-time reader, first post. I recently inherited ~40 net acres in central Lea County, NM, and have had landmen calling for the past six months. Now sitting on three offers and trying to figure out what to do.

My situation: the lowest offer is from a larger, seemingly reputable operator that — from what I’ve been able to gather — has a strong track record of drilling quickly and drilling well. The two higher offers are from smaller, less-experienced groups with similar royalty terms but meaningfully higher bonus payments. My concern is that if I take one of the higher bonuses, the acreage may never actually get developed and I’ll be looking for a new lessee in five years.

Any thoughts on how to weigh this risk and think about operator quality vs. upfront cash? Appreciate any guidance from people who’ve been through this.