Lavaca county & eagle ford shale

Have seen numerous news reports regarding industry concerns amid rapid well decline & operators offering EAGLE FORD lease holdings for purchase. Devon Energy is one that was noted today October 10. 2014?

There has been speculations amid majority stock holders recommending PVA stock holders pressure lease owners such as PVA to sell companies to highest bidders. I understand stock raiders often employ such takeover tactics.

QUESTION?

How stable/unstable are expectations for multiple well pad lease units?

With oil prices now at aa two year low, this provides some degree of understanding to PVA reducing expectations for 2nd quarter 2014/(Pennvirginia.com) (. ie; low oil prices, slow drilling & try to wait out the winter & falling oil prices. )

As a landowner/mineral owner with a lease that current rate of well decline, is suggesting our 1H unit will become non-producing before any prior plans for fill-in wells can be drilled? At this point it seems a crap shoot, so to speak for further well completetions.

QUESTION #2; current production is less than 90 bbl a day suggesting with past decline rates unit will become non-producing, in next few months due to falling prices and limited production, thus ending lease? Is this likely?

Any engineers information active or retired with insight is requested.

Thanks, Larry@cstx GIGEM!

Larry@cstx, unless prices continue to fall to maybe $70 I wouldn’t be overly concerned. Most OPEC countries need $90+ oil to stay in the green and they meet next month, so cross your fingers they cut output.

Regarding PVA slowing down and cutting estimates, it’s probably more due to the increase of pad drilling which makes bringing wells onto production much less regular since all wells on a multi-well pad are usually turned on at a time.

On your 2nd question, it’s not at all likely your #1H is anywhere near the end of its life in terms of production. The decline characteristics of these wells have them dropping like a rock over the first two years or so and then they flatten out considerably. I would expect these wells to produce economically for 20-30 years, but let me know which lease you’re included on and I would be more than happy to take a closer look.

Thanks for your reply. I’ve sent you a PM for additional questions/research? Thanks Omer

Chad Leonard said:

Larry@cstx, unless prices continue to fall to maybe $70 I wouldn’t be overly concerned. Most OPEC countries need $90+ oil to stay in the green and they meet next month, so cross your fingers they cut output.

Regarding PVA slowing down and cutting estimates, it’s probably more due to the increase of pad drilling which makes bringing wells onto production much less regular since all wells on a multi-well pad are usually turned on at a time.

On your 2nd question, it’s not at all likely your #1H is anywhere near the end of its life in terms of production. The decline characteristics of these wells have them dropping like a rock over the first two years or so and then they flatten out considerably. I would expect these wells to produce economically for 20-30 years, but let me know which lease you’re included on and I would be more than happy to take a closer look.