I’m trying to message NMoilboy but it won’t allow me to. I’m looking for information on specific sections of land.
I can’t locate maps or comps and hoping you may have some general information that might help me make an informed decision coming my way next week. Thanks so much.
Lol I learned the @ symbol and then their name after tags them 
We’ll see if it works
Heck he might be getting his son back to Notre Dame this weekend I’m sure NM oilboy will respond good luck.
I don’t think you can private message here, allows for too much shenanigans.
Sorry just saw this. I don’t have any definite answers for you. I would have said that was worth around $5-7k/NRA just on speculation of BoneSpring development and expected timing, but I’m not sure how timmyd got $20k/NRA in 19S32E so perhaps I don’t understand the market.
(Timmy’s stuff is further south = significantly better, but still it’s a data point)
You have Mewbourne drilling solid wells to out West of you. Dragonstone, Castle Black, etc. And two new Mewbourne wells (with very little production data) just north of you (Bravos…they seem to like Game of Thrones). Earthstone drilling south of you.
Map below shows only wells drilled in the last 12 months and current rig locations. Reasonable amount of stuff going on…
I would consider $10k/NRA to be a great offer. Below $5k/NRA to be a bad offer. That’s based on maybe getting 8-10 wells per mile wide unit in the next 5-15 years. In other words, it’s just a guess from some guy online. 
Wow, I don’t know how you all know this stuff but thank you so much. Current offer is about $7500/NRA. So seems like fair market value.
Thank you for the info @PeteR
Maybe he is headed to Burning Man!
Here is the map link. https://nm-emnrd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4d017f2306164de29fd2fb9f8f35ca75
The only Burning Man I attend is when I am picking up dog poo in the yard and it’s 109 degrees. There is some hallucinating going on, but it’s not nearly as cool as doing it with Elon Musk.
Subjective math fun to back up random guesses on value:
Operator drills four 2-mile long 2nd Bone Spring wells in a mile-wide unit in 18S33E. Expected production in first 10 years = 425,000 barrels per well (1.7M total). 1.7 million barrels / (1280 * 8 NRA) = 166 barrels per NRA. @ $75 barrel. $12,451 per NRA over 10 years.
That seems like kind of the success case on development. They drill 4 wells in the next, say, 3-7 years, and then produce them for 10 years. In which case, if they pay you $7,500/NRA, they almost double their money in 15 years, which is kind of a blah investment.
The homerun success case is when operator drills 4 more wells in another 3-5 years (3rd Bone Spring, let’s say) and they produce about the same as 2nd Bone Spring. Then they drill 2-4 more 1st Bone Spring wells after that. Then they produce them all for 30 years or so. In that case, in 40 years, those 10-12 wells make about 500 barrels per NRA, or about $37,000 of revenue per NRA over 40+ years, in the most highly successful case.
Maybe they only drill one or two wells total. In the worst case, nobody drills a well and this makes nothing.
That is kind of the bargain you make if you are a seller. If things go great, somebody, over a long term, makes 4-5 times what they pay you. If things go poorly, then they get nada. In the middle, they make a bit of money but it’s not crazy. Risked economics with a lot of guessing.
And yeah, there is always the chance that there are great things that might happen down the line that are so non-obvious that nobody can really quantify them today.
Huh? You are way too smart for me.
Do you think now is a good time to sell?
That’s up to you. Depends on your risk tolerance and financial need.
I think prices that people are paying are a good bit higher now than in the past, but unsure what future brings. Might go up even more.
Thank you 
appreciate the insight!
Never sell. This is a gift from wherever minerals came to you before you had them, and now you coexist with them. Treat them as manna from heaven.
I received a best and final today and still struggling on a decision. It’s about $8,500 per net acre. Is this the best the market has been in the last decade? Thanks.
Sorry, on the road. Yes this is the best that the market has been for that area ever.
The other way that lots of people look at it is… well, it’s gone from not much to where it is today… who’s to say it doesn’t get even better?
My $0.02 is that there are no terrible decisions at that sort of price point.
I ended up getting a higher offer than that and decided to sell. Such a hard decision but I’ve made it so now I can move on! Thanks!
Great post and great advice! Why would anyone want to sell mineral rights when it’s almost impossible to buy them? Someone is giving you money and it is too much of a bother to you!
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