Who’s got an opinion on what extent oil prices will be affected as a result?
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Several factors indicate scarcity in the market leading to higher prices
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I believe it will go to $100 a barrel and then dip to $80 to $85. War is unfortunate but as a result it will be a benefit to all basins. Companies will start drilling!
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I live in Europe where they are panicking — long queues at the petrol pumps. I notice Brent is already at $83, WTI $76. The Straits of Hormuz have been “shut” for the past two days. Commentators are predicting $90 if things don’t calm down. Time will tell…..
I think the price of oil (WTI) will rise to about 80. It depends on how long the war goes on if it stays there. There has been a glut of oil on the market for several years Which has resulted in historically low prices. The fact that a war has started in the middle east and prices have not risen any higher is a sign of the amount of oil available from other sources. Remember, The price of WTI was over a $110 in 2014 before the fracking boom really got under way . Do not expect an increase in drilling activity. Politically driven price increases are usually short term. Bringing new production to market is a long term process. The price would have to remain high for more than a year for oil companies to change their drilling plans. So enjoy the price increase while it lasts.
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Will the conflict with Iran affect natural gas prices?
Industry and manufacturing typically drive Natural gas pricing and a blip from cold long winters.
There is a useful phone app called “Oil Price Live” which lists various blends of oil by country, gas prices, energy news, etc.
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Natural gas prices are rising sharply in Europe. Over the last four years, Europe has made an effort to not buy Russian gas. They have replaced it with LNG mainly from Qatar. Qatar has shut down their LNG processing facilities for safety reasons so the supply is interrupted.
In the US, we have plenty of gas and very little ability to export it. so our natural gas markets should be insulated from any price hikes due to shortages other than weather or other local factors.
Another resource for pricing information is oilprice.com
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LNG prices in the USA are mostly related to winter demands and how much domestic oil is being pumped. Low oil prices means that we pump less domestic oil, which often means the LNG prices climb a bit since it becomes a bit more dear.