Certainly Apache controls the vast majority of the acreage in the area they deem prospective.
The fact that they did not lease all of Daniels County is irrelevant. Parts of Daniels County have no significant Bakken potential. You can be assured that Apache has under control (leased) the guts of what they perceive to be prospective.
Every play has holes in the map and lessors that are holding out for more money or better terms. This play is no exception. If there was any indication that the drilled wells are commercial - we would have noticed a flurry of activity by landmen. Many pros/landmen have been watching these wells. The absence of their activity to fill in the gaps is telling.
I will emphasize again that this area of Montana has been very unsuccessful for the Bakken.
The horizontal Bakken play was actually birthed in Richland County, Montana. The Elm Coulee field in Richland County kicked off the whole Bakken boom. Because of the success of the Elm Coulee Field, there was a highly circulated geologic technical paper of Bakken potential, that circulated in 2005, that showed a belt or fairway of prime horizontal Bakken potential running through Montana. The belt went from Elm Coulee through Roosevelt County into Eastern Valley County. In 2006, Stone Petroleum drilled four horizontal Bakken failures in eastern Valley County, just west of Daniels County. Stone’s failures happened to be right in the middle of this belt. As with the Fortuna failure and the Red Willow failures, the Stone wells technically “struck oil.” All of these failures had some oil cut in their results. BUT these wells also “hit the ocean.” All six wells encountered major water problems when flowing back the wells for results. Water in the Bakken makes the area uncommercial.
The water/oil cut is most likely 95/5 in this area.
A first year geology student who examines the well reports and logs of these six failures will conclude there is a water problem.
Bad news.
A shill for Shale Exp.? On the contrary.
Mr. Kennedy seems to have a level of sophistication in this business. It appears to be a classic case of companies issuing drafts and “riding down the well.” In the era of Chesapeake behavior, is it out of the question that if the results are unfavorable, the Lessees will disappear or find inconceivable reasons not to pay the draft?
The activity described by Mr. Humbert seems to solidify the theory they are moving lots of water. WATER.
When I express the hope that everyone gets paid quickly by Shale Exp., it is a hope that everyone gets paid in the face of what appears to be bad news. Nothing more.