Does anyone have any idea how long before the Bakken plays out? I have heard rumors of drilling and leasing to end in 2015.PLEASE tell me that is wrong, i have land that i hoping would get picked up soon
Scott,
The Bakken Oil System, is like no other System known to the world and specifically in North America. The Bakken formation is unique as a source rock and so far the major producers have only concentrated on those formations in the system that are known to be the most permeable zones into which the original oil has migrated. The source rocks themselves have barely been scratched. With every well that is drilled, the farsighted developers learn more about how to efficiently exploit the Bakken System oil through developing business models. They will be at it for decades or as long as demand for oil is sustained, crude oil prices make the return worth the risk, production taxes are held in check (taxes are a drag on development and have never produced a quart of oil) and political pressure to curtail efficient development is suppressed. Research the reasons behind the drop in Alaskan oil development. Yup, taxes and political pressures.
The cost of entry into Bakken production is very high so only the most well financed and technically advanced companies will succeed in the long term. they are the companies you want as lessees. Your children and grandchildren will most likely reap the benefits of mineral ownership in the Bakken. Make your decisions accordingly.
Mr. Weisenberger, I am actually an oil and natural gas producer myself in Texas and contrary to my industry, rather I should say the tight oil industry, I do not adhere to the Polly Anna abundance concepts like those above. Most people that tout the long term benefits of tight oil resources have much to gain from it themselves, be it lawyers, landmen or mineral buyers/traders; public companies trying to sell stock in their companies to raise money to drill more shale wells. I think it is disservice to people like yourself, to all Americans, to suggest that because of tight oil resources we're on the brink of energy independence, for instance.
I urge you to visit the Association of Peak Oil Studies, USA and other websites, for instance the Peak Oil Barrel, Peak Oil News, the Post Carbon Institute, among others, for very comprehensive analyses on the decline of Bakken well performance, what is becoming marginal economics in the Bakken (at current Bakken WH prices of 75 dollars a barrel), statistical decline curve studies, etc. Things are not as rosy out there as the tight oil industry wants you to believe. You should be concerned. Tight oil development is very product price sensitive.
Lets hope that can squeeze some more out of the Bakken turnip over coming years but please remember, nothing lasts forever and especially oil production that declines at the cumulative rate of 80 plus per cent in 3 years.
I'm an oil & gas geologist who has worked the basin for 35 years and I totally believe this play has legs for many years to come yet it is price sensitive and there are definite sweet spots within the play as the play has many components of different pressures, rock quality and certain facies that are more conducive to better development. It depends where your acreage is located as there are limits to maturity and also economic limits associated with water production. You can easily make 100,000 BO in poor areas but that will never pay out if you are drilling $10MM laterals. These will be economic failures.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10102
The article from The Oil Drum found at the URL above should be of some value here.
Dick Doyle