Forge Energy in Winkler?

Caleb,

This link is to an approved permit for a Forge Energy horizontal well(API 495-33782/Well name:U L 20 Flathead{} in Block 20/Section 23 ending in Section 26. The spud date(begin drilling) was February 16, so they are possibly still working on this well.

http://webapps2.rrc.state.tx.us/EWA/drillingPermitDetailAction.do?methodToCall=searchByUniversalDocNo&universalDocNo=490705676&rrcActionMan=H4sIAAAAAAAAAM1Ry07DMBD8mnK01k4cwmEPUQXnFip6iHpwEyu1lJfWjgApH886qBKknBEXe3Z2vB6PZwmAapYgUd4RVUUV3NA_V1SXcMKFf7NnM45eCW4LH0ywIryLyW-SIgdWKNyop8djwTCJsCbXtq5vdpY6F_x-svTxNVbUA4tS7Gy4DPVh2Jq2ZUIj2TBRfxherKHqwlSOcOOm9Eu3oMaL0ZDpXk072cUkXwx53FNMH3QEGs-2cb0_uhDn8cAftVSreqVXKYLktyyLAnkfOY2QcCmv3Mqh_Lu8_DWnDEfTWPqWx6_hyVO51kWz_PEKJcwJ6mROI9KYzRmD2_P_LfxPWTHFE7kCAAA

GIS Map of Winkler County Block 20/Section 23 and surrounding area:


CLICK ON MAP TO ENLARGE

Clint Liles

Caleb,

Can you supply the legal description:Section, Block and/or Abstract # of your minerals acreage in Winkler County? I will search for activity in the area and possibly provide some production numbers of wells in the area.

Clint Liles

Thank you, Clint. I'm new at this, and still learning. I've been using the GIS site, and searching permits. My interests are located in Sections 28 & 39, Block 27, PSL. The existing wells are Haley 27-28 and Wadsworth 39, API #s 49533243 and 49533237. I appreciate your help.

Caleb,

Sorry it took so long to get back to you but my wife is in the hospital and she comes first....

Next door to the Northwest in Section 20 Felix Energy has a permit(495-33758) approved on March 1, 2017 for a 14,000' Wolfcamp horizontal well..

Next door to the West in Section 29 Felix Energy has a permit(495-33774) approved March 1, 2017 for a 14,000' Wolfcamp hoizontal well....

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/drillDownQueryAction.do;jsessioni...

Link to Production Data on well 33570 in section24(2 pages):

http://webapps2.rrc.state.tx.us/EWA/specificLeaseQueryAction.do?tab=init&viewType=prodAndTotalDisp&methodToCall=fromGisViewer&pdqSearchArgs.paramValue=|2=01|3=2016|4=12|5=2016|103=46546|6=O|102=08|8=specificLease|204=district|9=dispDetails|10=0

GIS Map of Winkler County Section 28/Section 39/Block 27 and surrounding area:


CLICK ON MAP TO ENLARGE

Clint Liles

Link to Production Data on well 33594 in Section 44(2 pages):

http://webapps2.rrc.state.tx.us/EWA/specificLeaseQueryAction.do?tab=init&viewType=prodAndTotalDisp&methodToCall=fromGisViewer&pdqSearchArgs.paramValue=|2=01|3=2016|4=12|5=2016|103=45985|6=O|102=08|8=specificLease|204=district|9=dispDetails|10=0

Clint Liles

Caleb,

The Haley well(33243) started producing in August 2007 and through December 2016 it has produced 1 billion, 397 million, 361 thousand cubic feet of natural gas. You are in a very good area for some fantastic oil and gas wells.


CLICK ON DATA RECORD TO ENLARGE

Clint Liles

Clint,

Thank you so much for the information, and of course your wife comes first! No need to apologize. You are a good man to help out a stranger, and we wish you and your wife the best.

We are just at the stage of life trying to make the retirement budget balance, and seeing some future monthly income down the road would be very reassuring. Using some rough calculations, based on today's oil/gas prices, I'm trying to reconcile the per-acre pay out for these wells.

The old Haley and Wadsworth wells, which I presume are finished, produced approx $1,367 and $293 per lease acre respectively, based on a 1/4 royalty payout as per the lease.

For the new Horizontal wells, I don't know if production is expected to last longer compared to the old Vertical wells, so I'm tripling the first 2 years production to get a lifetime estimate, and factoring in a 1/4 royalty payout again:

PAUL 24: $4,800/lease acre
HARRISON 44: $7,300/lease acre

This hits into the ball park of the actual cash offer I have on my fractional interests, but this is assuming one well per section. Looking around on the GIS, am I correct in presuming over time there could be more than one well per section?

Please feel free to criticize my numbers, I'm new at this.

Caleb

Remember that these horizontal wells will have a high IP but will start declining almost immediately. Expect production after one year to be only 20 to 40% of the original production and that production after year # 3 or 4 will be only about 10% of the initial production.

So looking at a small percentage position of a several hundred acre production unit gives you some low (albeit) steady cash flow for most of the 20-30 year well life

There may be multiple wells drilled on the unit that would include your acreage, but the high decline production profile will be the norm.

Attached is a real production decline profile that shows both O&G decline over time for a horizontal shale well. One should look at this as a generic example of what to expect for these types of wells. The X axis at bottom is months on production (over 4 years in this case) while the Y axis on left side the production decline plot. A point at 90% means the production at that point is only 10% of the original production.

498-Genericdecline.pdf (118 KB)

Thank you Clint and Rock Man, this has been very helpful. I'm enjoying the pursuit of knowledge figuring out how this works. Today, I see a new drilling permit (API # 49533767 with the surface hole in Blk 27 Sec 28 (my interest), but the horizontal path extending into Blk 27 Sec 27 (a different lease holder - Felix Energy). Can you shed any light on how that works?

There will be an acreage unit associated with the lateral - let's say 320 acres. Your share of the revenue / royalties will be tied to your percentage of the acreage in that unit. If you have 80 acres, you will get 25% of the royalty revenues