Is anyone able to explain in simple terms the Property Summary and meaning of the Valuation Estimates of the Dogwood Gas Well posted below? How often are Property Summaries posted? There seems to have been no activity since December. Thank you.
The data is not showing up as it is behind a paywall. Hard to comment. That is a report by a vendor so you would have to ask them the particulars and assumptions that went into the estimates. Production data comes in about four months later just due to reporting lags.
You can follow production yourself for free on the OTC tax site. January is showing up now. I put Deadwood in the lease name box. https://oktap.tax.ok.gov/oktap/web/_/#4. Use the Public Pun option down on the left side in the HELP box. You do not need a login or password.
Since I cannot see what the report says, my comments are general. It takes about six to eight months or production to get a good decline curve with some predictive ability. There are only four months of production showing up in public locations yet, so I would not take any estimates right now as hard and fast unless there was an older twin well in the same sections with almost identical early numbers. (There isn’t one. ) What many estimators do is fit a curve to the production data and extrapolate it out into the future to get the volume that they predict will be produced within a certain time frame. The value is set by using a price deck. NYMEX five year is often used. Prices vary due to contracts, supply and demand, storms, etc., so they are just a “suggestion”. The farther out in time, the less one could rely that they are reflective of conditions at that time.
Hi Doug- I have a working interest in this well. What is it that you want to know? Shale Ex only gives mostly generic information on the history of an area where a well is.
My wife has a small interest in this property. It has been in her family for close to a century and this is our first experience with a producing well. Frankly, I am trying to estimate what the financial result will be for us. It is exciting to finally be in line for a payday after decades of waiting.
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