Converse county mineral rights to sell or not

Wyoming Mineral Rights Converse County, WY
1

Hi,

My family owns roughly 320 mineral total, 10% goes to me, I acres with 2 abandoned wells in section 6-34N-68W. We have had numerous offers to be bought out in the last 8 months. I was able to negotiate the price up to a little over $900 on the last offer, I have not signed it yet. Since no one in the family has been there since around 1984 I thought I should have a look, I made the 1100 round trip mile drive last week. What I found was no new wells in the area, and a lot of old wells still running. I have checked production records of the abandoned wells, the nearby wells that are still running and checked for permits and nothing seems to be going on in that section. What do they know that I don't? What is the mineral rights really worth? FYI I don't really need the money for bills or anything, I would just reinvest it into something that I know makes money. Any input would be greatly appreciated.

2

Were you considering the sale of roughly 320 acres, or your 10% of that (roughly 32 acres)?

3

I am considering it. I just don't want to sell for $900 if it's worth a lot more, maybe it is, maybe it's not, or if there are plans to move forward with new wells. Just looking for advice.

4

DO NOT SELL IT! The reason you are getting offers is because Anadarko is drilling the Trinity well(s) which is in Section 6. The Trinity wells have been large producers in other Sections surrounding your Section. Right now, the "Trinity 3468-7-T1XH" well is in "Confidential Status" on the Wyoming Oil and Gas website. Your first production check could be HUGE. You will make a lot more money overall if you hang on to the property and wait for the production checks to begin from Anadarko.

Keep an eye on your property through the Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation website located at:

www.wogcc.state.wy.us

Click on "Wells", click on "By Location", then enter your Section, Township and Range. You will see the Trinity well in Confidential Status.

This Anadarko well is why you've received so many purchase offers. Good thing you asked here first.

DO NOT SELL IT.

If you choose to sell it in the future, WAIT until the first production check arrives and a few months have passed to see what the productions will likely be. The production checks will decline after a few months from what is called "flush production" - which is the initial production from a well. You will probably make a lot more money off the first production check than the $900 per net mineral acre you are being offered.

Call Anadarko and ask to speak to the person who is handling that well to get an idea of where it stands.

GOOD LUCK!

5

Jay:

My brother and I share minerals in T34 R69 to the West of you. I turned down $7,000 to $8,500 per acre 8 months ago. The offer price depended on the day of the week and how badly the land man wanted to close the deal. Who knows if they would have actually paid that price. We currently participate in 4 producing wells. I look like a fool today for not selling, but who knows what the future holds. My point is $900 / acre is a lot less. You would be selling at the bottom of the market -- or it looks like the bottom. The price can't go too much lower. Only you can determine if it is in your best interest to sell.

I looked at the Wyoming Oil & Gas web site to see about drilling permits in your area. The wells being drilled in that area are horizontal so frequently the well bore pulls oil from more than one section. T34 R68 Section 6 is surrounded by 8 other sections. Even if they don't put the drill pad in Section 6, they could drill into Section 6 from one of the other 8 surrounding sections. So I looked for well permits in the other 8 sections. I see permits as follows:

T34 R68 Sec 6: 1 well permitted by Chesapeake

T34 R69 Sec 12: 24 wells with permit application by Anadarko. This section is SW of your minerals

T34 R68 Sec 7: 23 wells with permit application by Anadarko. This section is directly South of your minerals.

T34 R68 Sec 8: 3 wells with permit application by Anadarko. This section is SE of your minerals.

So in theory, any of these wells could be drilling up into your Section 6 minerals -- or not.

So I quickly looked at one Anadarko well shown in T34 R68 Sec7. The well number is 49-009-30733. That well has a Wyoming approved permit. It is shown as a " confidential" well, but there is still information about the well location. The well pad is in the NE Qtr of Section 7 and the drill path goes all the way North to the top of Section 6 in the East 1/2. I don't know if it touches your minerals but about 60% of the well length appears to be in Section 6. So it looks like there is planned drilling activity closer than you might have realized. My guess is, this is not the only well Anadarko plans to drill up into Section 6. More research would answer that question.

When a well permit is approved by the State Of Wyoming, the approved permit will be posted on-line and that permit will show the Township, Range and Section of both the drill site and the bottom hole location. So for example, if the well is drilled in Section 7 and the bottom hole is shown in Section 6, the well is being drilled North into Section 6. There will also be a map attached which you can see the actual bore path of the well. On the map you can see the location of the upper and lower penetration points which is where oil will flow into the well at both the upper and lower ends. This is the info I used to determine that well 9-30733 is going North. You will also need to know how the BLM method for determining the mineral owner participation for each well. In general it involves a circle with a 745 ft. radius from both the upper and lower penetration points and then connect the circles to form the participation area. That is a topic too detailed to go into. Things are measured down to the 10 acre plot. My point is, there is enough info on the Wyoming Oil,and Gas web site to figure out if your minerals will participate in a given well once the permit is approved and if you know how to figure out the details. .

With some work, you can determine if Anadarko plans to drill into the area of your minerals. You can also see the formations that Anadarko plans to drill into. The Powder River Basin has what they call stacked formations so they are testing many different levels in the stack.

I'm sorry if I am losing you with detail. If you want to discuss, send me a private message with you phone number and I will give you a return call. I think the news is better than you might have realized.

Good Luck!

John Linden

6

My question is were you selling all of it, or just your portion?

7

Just my portion, I know that other family members have received offers also, what they do is up to them, I don't think many are interested in selling. It's become a very interesting subject for me. I'm new to this so I am doing as much research as I can to make a sound decision.

8

I tried to look up permits on http://www.wogcc.state.wy.us/e and I kept getting a error message every time I tried. I will keep trying. You have just answered my next 5 questions in one reply. I will pm you as soon as I get a minute. Our lots in this section are lot 3,4,5,6,7, and this part I'm not sure reads as SE/4NW/4, E/2SW/4 which incluedes the R.l Smith #1 & 2 wells that are abandond. The numbered sections run across the top of the section along manning rd. and from north to south along the west edge of the section, the other numbers I am not sure of. Some of these wells mentioned do not show up on drillingedge .com, this is a resource I have been using, I have had problem accessing info on the wy. site. Thanks to all that have replied, the information is priceless.

9

Yes if you turned down $8500/ac out here, thats gotta hurt. But sounds like you're in it for the long haul anyways. I agree with you that $900/ac is pathetic for good minerals and the market is at it's (gotta be?) lowest point. Who knows though, look what's happened in natural gas, it's been low for a long time, thanks to our innovative friends in the frac world.

I found it interesting today, Goldman Sachs put out a report saying oil to recover to $40 in 6 months. Ouch, but I'll take it. I was optimistic for oil after reading the IHS report about the US Govt lifting the export ban and what could amount to a shot in the arm for WTI from 2017-2025.

I buy and sell in Wyoming. Everytime I look at a potential play on Wogcc site it seems like Anadarko or another of the heavyweights has them all permitted. Similar to West Texas where it's a rubber stamp operation. I do not know that but does anyone?

The advice the seller is getting is Buy Low/Sell High. It's good advice. The seller is saying he sees a brighter future/lower price in something else. Every market has to have a player on both sides of the equation.

I have never heard or used that calculation you referred to Mr. Linden about the BLM and penetration points. Are there federal leases up here too? If you have more info or want to discuss here's my # 512.293.5493

10

If you do really want to sell it put it on Energynet or OGClearinghouse auctions. Those are good minerals and they will bring better prices than $900 but frankly, that's how pathetic the market has gotten. FYI - I got some great minerals at an auction once for $20/ac because nobody showed up, and they got developed 5 years later. You can't count on those things though, it's luck. Selling at a low market goes against fundamental logic. But if you must roll the dice, go through the auctions and do it professionally.

11

Thanks for your advice. I'm really glad to have found this forum. The $20/ac sounds like it played out well for you. I wish I knew what the original investment back in the early 1900's when my family bought it. They then sold 1/2 of it off not long after, no records of it. But I think they did well, I know the rest of the family did well in the late 70's with royalties. I'm not old enough to remember any of that.

12

I just looked at 12 wells that have approved permits for Anadarko to drill into Section 6 from drill pads located in Section 7. These wells include 49-009-30714, 715, 716, 717, 718 719,723 725,728, 729 & 733 all approved in August 2015 and 49-009-31925 approved Jan 8, 2016. All of these wells go from drill pads in Section 7 up into Section 6. The well paths are spread out all over Section 6. It looks like the majority of the oil in these wells will come from Section 6. It appears Anadarko wants to pump oil from all over Section 6.

I have no idea if they will drill these wells or when, but I can see why a mineral buyer would want to pay $900/acre and then wait to see if there is a payoff.

It's not just the price of oil and gas that is important to the mineral owner. The amount of oil and gas coming out of the ground is very important. And then, how much of your minerals participate in each well. It looks to me like Anadarko thinks there is a lot of oil and gas in T34 R68 Sec 6.

I agree with Bart, talk to Anadarko. They may talk and they may not, but it's worth a try.

John Linden

13

Good deal, you found the right place. Gotta play the odds. There was a deal done in W. Texas as a comparison (recently). It had one well already drilled per section, so money had been spent. Final net price was $22k an acre. Why? Infrastructure is a big part but because of the long-term potential and the resource. The resource is similar where we are at up here in Converse. That's why people are saying to hold it. But if you knew you could buy a great deal on the cheap or put the cash into a killer business...maybe dump it. It's all relative. Those deals like I got don't come around super often for me and I work every day so that's all I got...

14

Jay:

I looked further into the T34 R68 Sec 6 permitted wells. The East half of Sec 6 is Federal minerals. The West half of Section 6 is private owner minerals. So I assume your families 320 acres of minerals cover the West Half of Section 6.

According to the map, there are 2 drill pads in Section 7 with 7 wells going up into the West Half of Section 6. Some of these Anadarko wells are drilling the Niobrara formation and others the Turner formation. From what I have observed, they can cover a 320 acre half section with 3 - 4 wells. So it looks like there are 7 wells pointed into the West half because they are drilling BOTH the Niobrara and the Turner Formations.

I would look to see if Anadarko has any producing wells in the immediate area. Once the confidential status has been lifted, you can get an idea how much oil and gas these wells are producing at least in the initial stages. That should help you do an estimate of how much you might receive from your participation in these wells.

All I see is good news for you when I look at the Anadarko plans for this area.

John

15

Wow. That sounds like it has potential. I think for the time being I will hold onto the rights. Thanks for all your research and help. I'll pm after bit. Phones are still busy today.

16

I remember now that all yellow shaded lands are federal, blue are state and white is fee --- pertaining to Wogcc map server. Thanks for your call and explanation of how the drilling units are established. As promised, here is the research on the implications of removing the export ban, it is too large to attach here but it's free:

https://www.ihs.com/info/0514/crude-oil.html

17

Jay, try using this link: http://wogcc.state.wy.us/ApdCompCompMenu.cfm

This one should work also, but be sure to check the box to download as a point file. http://wogcc.state.wy.us/DumpApdsR.cfm

Also, from time to time, I have trouble with one of the links on their web site. If you get the error msg that says something like "forbidden . . ." try switching to using a different browser. For example, I can't access the Hearings Menu with Firefox, but I can using Google Chrome & IE.