Can Comstock Make Money In The Western Haynesville?

Comstock had 23 wells in production as of June 2025. These wells have produced 176.1 billion cubic feet of gas.

Gross revenue from these wells, as reported via the Texas Comptrollers Office CONG system, was $422.9 million.

Reported marketing (gas treatment and transportation) costs were $149.3 million.

For discussion purposes, I have assumed a net royalty rate of 15%, reflecting the fact that a lot of leases do not have a cost-free royalty. This produces total royalties of $63.4 million.

Net revenue after marketing and royalties equals

$422.9 - 149.3 - 63.4 = $210.2 million

Comstock recently stated that current drilling and completion costs were down to about $25 million per well. Their earliest wells cost closer to $40 million, but I’m assuming for this analysis that each of the 23 wells cost $25 million.

Total drilling and completion cost: $25 million x 23 wells = $575 million

$210.2 million - 575 million = negative cash flow of $364.8 million

It should be noted that Comstock essentially owns the pipelines and gas treatment plant, so there is some “play” in these numbers (for example, Comstock’s June 2025 marketing costs were about $1.10 per MCF compared to $0.67 for Aethon). However, it is clear that Comstock is running a significant net cash deficit so far on these wells.

It will be interesting to observe the dynamics of the cash flow picture moving forward.

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I believe Aethon’s numbers are better. I know they’ve had the Best Well. I wonder if they are making money?

If not, maybe the Core Haynesville will look sexier?

Obviously they will keep flowing the wells, but yes it seems as these wells have largely declined they would be lucky to get their money back in 10 years.

I am sure Jerry Jones/Comstock and Aethon are all as frustrated with the <$3 per MCF we are selling the gas at as I am. We really need sustained $5+ gas price.

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Alan, What reserves are Comstock using for these wells?

Look at their stock price and that will answer your question.

I know they are still leasing so they must like what they see

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The numbers i have seen have shown pretty low decline rates. Im sure they are choked back.

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Hi TEXMAN, what does it mean to have shown low decline rates and please define what it means that they are choked back? Thanks

When I have time, I will post about decline rates. Some of Comstock’s wells have shown sharp drops recently. My impression is that Aethon has some wells with longer “legs” than Comstock.

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I have heard that these wells , while certainly declining ,

show lower rates because they are being curtailed because of outlet capacity.

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Unfortunately it does not seem to be the case after 10-11 months

Alan, As I am sure you are already aware, Atheon’s Curry #2 well is still producing like mad after almost 3 years. Every time production dips a little for a couple of months it returns right back to near peak production. My family and I have interest in the nearby Aethon KODA well. It is doing very well after over 2 years. I keep praying it will make another return trip to or two back to peak production the way Currie has but so far no cigar. Right next door to me is Comstocks initial well that started this whole Western Haynesville play CIRCLE M ALLOC and it looks to be fizzleing out.

I would be very interested in your thoughts, predictions and analysis!

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The Best Play is the Deep Bossier in Houston County drilled horizontal on my mineral rights!

Here is a production comparison for Aethon’s and Comstock’s best wells so far in the Western Haynesville play:

Aethon Currie 2HB:

Total production days: 1,006

Average daily production through June 2025: 20,471 MCF

Average daily production during June 2025: 18,540 MCF

% of overall average production: 90.6%

Comstock Circle M:

Total production days: 1,171

Average daily production through June 2025: 16,561 MCF

Average daily production during June 2025: 2,008 MCF

% of overall average production: 12.1%

This is a pattern that applies to most of the Aethon and Comstock wells that have been in production for at least a year. The Aethon wells have higher average daily production and the decline rate is lower over time. However, most of the Comstock wells do not show as steep a decline as the Circle M has.

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Hi TEXMAN, what does it mean to have shown low decline rates and please define what it means that they are choked back? Thanks

Not TXMAN. Low decline rates mean the gas production rate has not declined very much.

Re: “choked back”. You are using a choke to hold backpressure on the well. Think of it like a propane tank. Where you have barely opened the valve (choke). Propane comes out, lowers the pressure in the tank, in an hour you will have less pressure in the tank which affects the rate at which pressure comes out of the tank, thus the rate goes down. If you slowly open the valve/choke with time you can keep the rate flat or mostly flat (but then you are taking more propane out of the tank and lowering the pressure even more). At some point the valve is fully open, and then the rate starts falling off the table.

If your well is in better rock, or thicker rock, or you put a better frac on it…you effectively have a bigger tank. Gross simplification but shrug.

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Hi Alan, Research from AI gives many clues to the difference in these 2 wells average production percentages. Many factors involved to come up with these figures. Sounds like comparing apples to oranges as far as the research coming from AI.I am not necessarily disagreeing but further research may be warranted with these 2 wells.

Very well done, I appreciate the descriptive explanation. Helpful.

Comstock must be very happy with their results. They have bet the company on it and continue to lease in Leon County.

I’m not sure what you mean by AI. The numbers I provided are from the wells actual production to date. Nothing has been projected.