Can Comstock Make Money In The Western Haynesville?

General Mineral Rights Discussion
1

Comstock had 23 wells in production as of June 2025. These wells have produced 176.1 billion cubic feet of gas.

Gross revenue from these wells, as reported via the Texas Comptrollers Office CONG system, was $422.9 million.

Reported marketing (gas treatment and transportation) costs were $149.3 million.

For discussion purposes, I have assumed a net royalty rate of 15%, reflecting the fact that a lot of leases do not have a cost-free royalty. This produces total royalties of $63.4 million.

Net revenue after marketing and royalties equals

$422.9 - 149.3 - 63.4 = $210.2 million

Comstock recently stated that current drilling and completion costs were down to about $25 million per well. Their earliest wells cost closer to $40 million, but I’m assuming for this analysis that each of the 23 wells cost $25 million.

Total drilling and completion cost: $25 million x 23 wells = $575 million

$210.2 million - 575 million = negative cash flow of $364.8 million

It should be noted that Comstock essentially owns the pipelines and gas treatment plant, so there is some “play” in these numbers (for example, Comstock’s June 2025 marketing costs were about $1.10 per MCF compared to $0.67 for Aethon). However, it is clear that Comstock is running a significant net cash deficit so far on these wells.

It will be interesting to observe the dynamics of the cash flow picture moving forward.

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2

I believe Aethon’s numbers are better. I know they’ve had the Best Well. I wonder if they are making money?

If not, maybe the Core Haynesville will look sexier?

3

Obviously they will keep flowing the wells, but yes it seems as these wells have largely declined they would be lucky to get their money back in 10 years.

4

I am sure Jerry Jones/Comstock and Aethon are all as frustrated with the <$3 per MCF we are selling the gas at as I am. We really need sustained $5+ gas price.

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5

Alan, What reserves are Comstock using for these wells?

6

Look at their stock price and that will answer your question.

7

I know they are still leasing so they must like what they see

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8

The numbers i have seen have shown pretty low decline rates. Im sure they are choked back.

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Hi TEXMAN, what does it mean to have shown low decline rates and please define what it means that they are choked back? Thanks

10

When I have time, I will post about decline rates. Some of Comstock’s wells have shown sharp drops recently. My impression is that Aethon has some wells with longer “legs” than Comstock.

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11

I have heard that these wells , while certainly declining ,

show lower rates because they are being curtailed because of outlet capacity.

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Unfortunately it does not seem to be the case after 10-11 months

13

Alan, As I am sure you are already aware, Atheon’s Curry #2 well is still producing like mad after almost 3 years. Every time production dips a little for a couple of months it returns right back to near peak production. My family and I have interest in the nearby Aethon KODA well. It is doing very well after over 2 years. I keep praying it will make another return trip to or two back to peak production the way Currie has but so far no cigar. Right next door to me is Comstocks initial well that started this whole Western Haynesville play CIRCLE M ALLOC and it looks to be fizzleing out.

I would be very interested in your thoughts, predictions and analysis!

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