Hi folks,
Curious, about how long do you think these new Goonch wells by Novo O&G will continue to produce? Seeing that there are so many in the section, I’m inclined to believe the reservoir will be drained in no time. Any guidance on how long?
The wells will be on production for 30 years, I’d guess. How long will they produce at current rates? Not long at all.
If you go pull all the production data from Wolfcamp horizontals in Township 23S, Range 28E (that came online from 2017-2020, so they will have some history), the average of them looks like this:
Blue dots are averages of the wells, black line is the “best fit” hyperbolic curve through the data. In other words, the black line is a guess at what a well will do over its life based on what has been observed to date on prior wells. This graph only goes for 10 years, but a well should produce until it only makes 2-3 bopd. So 30-40 years.
These were mostly 5000’ laterals, the longer of the Goonch wells should make more oil, but the shape of the decline curve (black line) should give you an idea of how fast these will fall off. At the end of the first year, the wells are making below 30% of their peak rate, at end of second year, something like 15% of the peak rate, end of third year, 10% of the peak rate. Then it keeps flattening out (declining at a smaller % each year). So it will produce for a long time. But only a very short time at current (high) rates.
All the wells are in the Wolfcamp. But the Wolfcamp is pretty thick. Probably 1000’ here. I only checked a handful of the wells, but they seem to be staggered in the Wolfcamp XY (very top), Wolfcamp A (top-middle), and what they are calling the Wolfcamp B (near the bottom). Only 10 active producers currently. So from a number of wells across a section in a single zone it’s not all that high. But yes, there could be some well-well interference which makes them decline somewhat faster than the type curve. They may also be choked back currently which would make them decline slower than the type curve for a while.
Long answer, sorry. You make most of your cash upfront. Then you just collect smaller checks for a long long time.
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