Re: I think shorter laterals produce more per foot
If you frac a 250’ stage in, say, 6 clusters with 50bbl/ft of water and 2000#/ft of sand in a 3 mile well and you frac a 250’ stage with same design in a 2 mile well, your model is going to tell you that that 250’ of lateral length produces the exact same amount of oil. For any stage at any place along the length of the wellbore. That’s what a model does.
Wellbore hydraulics are different the further you get away from the heel (where the lateral starts) of the well. Both for pumping in fluids (fracking) and flowing back fluids. It’s harder to produce from the toe than from the heel. That stage 3 miles away from the heel in the same 5.5" liner has to flow 50% further, up a rollercoaster wellbore, that may get sand in it, etc. Into the same size facilities as a 2 mile wellbore etc. At some point, you are trying to stuff 10# of sh_t into a 5# bag as you make laterals longer. There are going to be some inefficiencies. That is what I think. I’m sure if I had a giant Spotfire/Tableau DB of all the wells in the US with all of the completion inputs I could go and get a dataset where the only meaningful variable was lateral length and make some great plot of prod/ft vs lateral length. In my past life we would do that and shorter wells were better and eventually someone would just say “put a flatter long term decline on the longer wells so that they get the same ultimate recovery per foot”. Which, frankly, makes some sense. But shorter wells are better up front.
Here is a small dataset (100s of wells) from EOG in Lea County NM from my current life.
I’m not arguing that longer wells aren’t better econs. Or that they don’t make more oil. But I think for a mineral owner you’d rather have short wells get drilled. But, as you say, if they can only drill shorter wells on your acreage and instead choose to go drill longer wells somewhere else because the ROR is better for them, well than that is definitely not a good thing for you.
But in general, shorter wells come on at higher per/ft rates. In my opinion. People should drill 2 miles without hesitation IMO. 1 mile wells it gets a bit worse on operator econs, so I think I’d be a little worried about getting developed if I had a stranded single section. Shrug.
This is way too much information for this topic/forum I just was bored.