Przzz that is why I asked it seemed a little far fetched but it would be great. The part I was really interested in getting comments on is his statement about re-entering wells later with new techniques. I this based on reality?
Przzz said:
Re: Androit O&G Comments
This will come across as pretty negative, but NO Eagle Ford operator with any experience in the Trend is citing 10% or higher recovery factors. EOG has the highest numbers I have seen so far - and it is only 8% in their sweet spot of trend. Most operators cite lower percentages (e.g. 4-5%).
On top of this, reservoir engineers and other technical experts who have exposure to massive amounts of core and production data support these assumptions on recovery factors.
So it is not "the common belief".
Up to seeing this posting, I have never heard of Androit O&G - appear to be a very new player to the EF trend and they also appear to be pumping up investors with these sort of comments.
Can the Cline or other Permian Basin reservoirs have 10% + recovery factors? Yes and no - all depends on the reservoir characteristics and stimulation efficiencies. But established operators in the Basin will cite single digit recovery factors for the most part.
Craig Wascom said:
Does this comment on the Eagle Ford apply to the Cline as well? Pretty interesting statment, does it have any basis in truth?
.....Consider this: the common belief that an operator is able to recover 10-15% of the available resource with the initial completion of an Eagle Ford Shale well. As technology improves, it is likely that companies will be able to go back into many of these wells, re-stimulate them, and recover much more of that resource decades from now.... - See more at: http://www.adroitoilandgas.com/blogs/most-recent-news/2013/11/1/the...
Przzz - another advantage of clay minerals is their being at such a reduced, small scale - being the most weatherized, stable materials in the world - is their having books of mica being the main component of the clays. We are talking about in the four to twenty Angstroms range - with an Angstrom being one ten-billionth of a meter. Small. So, there are many books of mica that can stack up like pancakes, creating pillars if you will - to keep the fractures in the rock formation propped open. Sand grains would be too large to enter the books of mica; and could the sand grains act like bowling balls and knockout the pillars of clay minerals? It depends on many things - but it won’t be because the clay mineral is not thermodynamically stable enough.
OK, sorry I missed the re-entry issue - the recovery factor numbers grabbed my attention 10000%.
Future reworking / stimulations will most probably be used in the EF play - the issue will be how aggressive can operators be in a horizontnal wellbore that is already perforated and open over its entire length.
The key to initial stimulations in the EF is the ability to focus on short specific intervals in the horizontal (e.g. 250-350' lengths) and then frac'ing that short interval with massive power (proppant and fluid).
With a wellbore / horizontal already perforated, the ability to isolate and frac specific intervals in the future is basically gone. One would try to isolate stages with sliding sleeves and packers and smaller tubing, but the mix of smaller tubulars and weakness in the casing will limit pressure pumping and ultimately frac efficiency.
In plays the Banett Shale, there have been some wells tha thave been re-stimulated over time to increase production. I am no expert on how this has been done and would really welcome someone to chime in on that issue on this Forum.
"Hail Mary" frac's and acid stimulations are common in many horizontal formations. In these situations, a stimulation is pumped over the entire length of the horizontal with the goal of putting the stimulation into the formation at where ever it may go (ergo the "Hail Mary" description).
Of course, new technology may allow for companies to more specifically and powerfully re-stimulate horizontals.
Hope we get to see this in our lifetimes.
Craig Wascom said:
Przzz that is why I asked it seemed a little far fetched but it would be great. The part I was really interested in getting comments on is his statement about re-entering wells later with new techniques. I this based on reality?
Przzz said:
Re: Androit O&G Comments
This will come across as pretty negative, but NO Eagle Ford operator with any experience in the Trend is citing 10% or higher recovery factors. EOG has the highest numbers I have seen so far - and it is only 8% in their sweet spot of trend. Most operators cite lower percentages (e.g. 4-5%).
On top of this, reservoir engineers and other technical experts who have exposure to massive amounts of core and production data support these assumptions on recovery factors.
So it is not "the common belief".
Up to seeing this posting, I have never heard of Androit O&G - appear to be a very new player to the EF trend and they also appear to be pumping up investors with these sort of comments.
Can the Cline or other Permian Basin reservoirs have 10% + recovery factors? Yes and no - all depends on the reservoir characteristics and stimulation efficiencies. But established operators in the Basin will cite single digit recovery factors for the most part.
Craig Wascom said:
Does this comment on the Eagle Ford apply to the Cline as well? Pretty interesting statment, does it have any basis in truth?
.....Consider this: the common belief that an operator is able to recover 10-15% of the available resource with the initial completion of an Eagle Ford Shale well. As technology improves, it is likely that companies will be able to go back into many of these wells, re-stimulate them, and recover much more of that resource decades from now.... - See more at: http://www.adroitoilandgas.com/blogs/most-recent-news/2013/11/1/the...
I should know this but have to ask - any idea what the is the molecular size of oil and gas molecules? Figure gas is small enough to get thru theoretical clay proppant situations but I wonder if some oils are to large to freely move in such situations?
Ralpr said:
Przzz - another advantage of clay minerals is their being at such a reduced, small scale - being the most weatherized, stable materials in the world - is their having books of mica being the main component of the clays. We are talking about in the four to twenty Angstroms range - with an Angstrom being one ten-billionth of a meter. Small. So, there are many books of mica that can stack up like pancakes, creating pillars if you will - to keep the fractures in the rock formation propped open. Sand grains would be too large to enter the books of mica; and could the sand grains act like bowling balls and knockout the pillars of clay minerals? It depends on many things - but it won't be because the clay mineral is not thermodynamically stable enough.
Producers are banking on fractures large enough to have fluids and gases flow through. I’m of the opinion that the proppants would merely alter the flow of oil, NGLs, and NG. The petroleum engineers and petroleum hydrogeologists are trying to determine the ability of oil and gas and water saturations to overcome capillary pressures, interfacial tensions, and pore geometry
There are many variables involved including pore pressures, formation temperatures, and viscosity. The percentage recoverable (8%) means that only 8 % is recoverable using pumping and other means and then if one uses tertiary treatment (WAG) water, alternating, gas (carbon dioxide) - one can increase the recover-abilities significantly. As you know, companies are using WAG after conventional production - the horizontal wells and better fracs are increasing recoverabilities significantly, say from 8% trending to 12% and higher. Emphasis on the higher because of better wells and horizontal legs increasing the zone of influence in the wells (how much area is pumped by the well that can be observed readily) for energy production.
Thanks, I had heard that going back in was pretty much a Hail Mary in itself that why it sounded strange.
Przzz said:
Craig,
OK, sorry I missed the re-entry issue - the recovery factor numbers grabbed my attention 10000%.
Future reworking / stimulations will most probably be used in the EF play - the issue will be how aggressive can operators be in a horizontnal wellbore that is already perforated and open over its entire length.
The key to initial stimulations in the EF is the ability to focus on short specific intervals in the horizontal (e.g. 250-350' lengths) and then frac'ing that short interval with massive power (proppant and fluid).
With a wellbore / horizontal already perforated, the ability to isolate and frac specific intervals in the future is basically gone. One would try to isolate stages with sliding sleeves and packers and smaller tubing, but the mix of smaller tubulars and weakness in the casing will limit pressure pumping and ultimately frac efficiency.
In plays the Banett Shale, there have been some wells tha thave been re-stimulated over time to increase production. I am no expert on how this has been done and would really welcome someone to chime in on that issue on this Forum.
"Hail Mary" frac's and acid stimulations are common in many horizontal formations. In these situations, a stimulation is pumped over the entire length of the horizontal with the goal of putting the stimulation into the formation at where ever it may go (ergo the "Hail Mary" description).
Of course, new technology may allow for companies to more specifically and powerfully re-stimulate horizontals.
Hope we get to see this in our lifetimes.
Craig Wascom said:
Przzz that is why I asked it seemed a little far fetched but it would be great. The part I was really interested in getting comments on is his statement about re-entering wells later with new techniques. I this based on reality?
Przzz said:
Re: Androit O&G Comments
This will come across as pretty negative, but NO Eagle Ford operator with any experience in the Trend is citing 10% or higher recovery factors. EOG has the highest numbers I have seen so far - and it is only 8% in their sweet spot of trend. Most operators cite lower percentages (e.g. 4-5%).
On top of this, reservoir engineers and other technical experts who have exposure to massive amounts of core and production data support these assumptions on recovery factors.
So it is not "the common belief".
Up to seeing this posting, I have never heard of Androit O&G - appear to be a very new player to the EF trend and they also appear to be pumping up investors with these sort of comments.
Can the Cline or other Permian Basin reservoirs have 10% + recovery factors? Yes and no - all depends on the reservoir characteristics and stimulation efficiencies. But established operators in the Basin will cite single digit recovery factors for the most part.
Craig Wascom said:
Does this comment on the Eagle Ford apply to the Cline as well? Pretty interesting statment, does it have any basis in truth?
.....Consider this: the common belief that an operator is able to recover 10-15% of the available resource with the initial completion of an Eagle Ford Shale well. As technology improves, it is likely that companies will be able to go back into many of these wells, re-stimulate them, and recover much more of that resource decades from now.... - See more at: http://www.adroitoilandgas.com/blogs/most-recent-news/2013/11/1/the...
Interesting, I have heard of the use of carbon dioxide but not WAG water. I will have to look that up.
Ralpr said:
There are many variables involved including pore pressures, formation temperatures, and viscosity. The percentage recoverable (8%) means that only 8 % is recoverable using pumping and other means and then if one uses tertiary treatment (WAG) water, alternating, gas (carbon dioxide) - one can increase the recover-abilities significantly. As you know, companies are using WAG after conventional production - the horizontal wells and better fracs are increasing recoverabilities significantly, say from 8% trending to 12% and higher. Emphasis on the higher because of better wells and horizontal legs increasing the zone of influence in the wells (how much area is pumped by the well that can be observed readily) for energy production.
....Cimarex Chairman and CEO, Tom Jorden, said, "The third quarter not only produced excellent financial results, it was also a period of strong technical momentum in the Texas Delaware Basin Wolfcamp shale. We completed a Reeves County Wolfcamp A horizontal well using a 10,000-foot lateral and have also tested upsized frac stages on our traditional 5,000-foot lateral, increasing the number from 12 stages to 20. Both were operational and economic successes. These new completion techniques will most certainly play into our future development plans for this large, stacked-pay resource."...
....CEO Bill Thomas commented on some of the elements of EOG's completion optimization work (while the comments related to the Bakken, the technique is common to all of the company's unconventional plays):
There are several things going on... As we have learned in all these plays, connecting more of the rock and connecting the rock that is closer to the wellbore is the goal that we are working on. As we increase the amount of sand that we put [into the completion] in the Bakken, we feel like we are also doing a much better job of distributing that sand and the fluid, frac along the lateral more evenly, so that helps to connect more rock and get more oil in contact with the well. So what we are seeing on these wells with the new improved fracs is that they come on with really nice IPs, as we reported, but they also have a little slower decline rate than the initial wells, they hold up better. And so the initial 30-day rate and the initial 100-day cumulative production are showing quite a bit of improvement, because we are moving that oil forward in the production line for the well. So it's nice, good, successful technical renaissance that we are achieving there in the Bakken and seeing really good results because of it.
EOG Resources' CEO Presents at Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2013 Global Energy Conference (Transcript)
....I have plotted up some of the recent data from some of the very best Permian wells and plotted that against some of the -- just again some of the Eagle Ford, our typical Eagle Ford well and what you see is you see the oil declining much steeper. In fact, they're pretty steep in Eagle, but it is even steeper in the Permian. And it lower -- it levels off at much lower level.
So those charts that I showed that compared the three plays, even with significant improvement in the average Permian well the rock quality in the Permian, in any of the plays is not nearly as good as Eagle Ford. And so it is just going to be a lot more difficult to grow volume in the Permian and I think than most people give a credit. That's the way we see it.
It is not that there is not a lot of reserve potential there, the reserve potential in Permian is huge. We're not saying that is not going to happen, it's just you're going to have to drill a lot more wells, it's going to take a lot more money, a lot more time to grow production. So you're not going to see the Permian just ramp up in two years from almost zero to 900,000 barrel per day, it's just going to be a slower growth rate.....
Thanks Craig for the insight coming from the investment community. The EOG CEO has to present a fair assessment of what his investors can anticipate. Whether another company can work their leases better is another issue, but I think that the rocks have their own physical characteristics that tell the professional geologists how much oil and gas one can expect from the play.
...Apache's costs on its Barnhart project in the Permian Basin - where it plans to drill about 70 wells into the Wolfcamp shale out of a Permian total of more than 800 wells - have fallen $1 million per well, or about 13 percent, to about $6.8 million in the last year and a half....