What are good terms currently for leases in Golden Valley?

My lord, I hope nobody is taking MaryAnne seriously.

I'm unsure if she is seriously misinformed, or if it is just wishful thinking on her part. However either way she is providing some extremely wacky advice. I've refrained from responding for awhile but what she posted is potentially very dangerous. Before taking that advice, or my own, do your own due diligence and consider the facts and especially your potential risks.

Most Whiting wells around Beach are comparatively cheap vertical wells. A few have been much more expensive horizontals. Still the "cheap" wells are costing about $3.7 million to complete. They are on half section spacing (320 acres). Pretend you own even 40 net acres. If so, you'll OWE 12.5%, or $462,500, for your share of the well expense. What MaryAnne hasn't mentioned (or considered?) is your working interest share of $462,000 is typically due and payable BEFORE you receive a penny from any produced oil.

MaryAnne is correct with a working interest "you get 100% of all revenue your share produces forever". So how much will that be? Nobody knows until your minerals are drilled. Yet you can review actual results from surrounding wells. Thus you can assess how much risk you're taking with a working interest.

About thirty or so Red River wells have been drilled near Beach. A handful are good wells, most have been poor wells, and many have been dry holes or a complete bust. If you are fortunate enough to hit a well matching the best drilled (apx. 6 out of the 30 wells drilled) you may double or triple your money. This is great! Though if you hit one of their 'average' wells (apx. 15 of the 30 wells) you'll be very fortunate if you recover your $462M after four or five years of production. This is not great but ok in that eventually you do make some profit.

However, if you're unfortunate and have another one of the dry holes (apx. 9 of the 30) you've just lost your $462,500 investment forever. Further, if your minerals are drilled with one of the more expensive horizontal wells your expenses nearly double, and the recovery of your money (if ever) just became an even longer proposition. To date these horizontals have not panned out in the Red River formation.

On the other hand instead of keeping a working interest, if you leased for MaryAnne's example of 20% royalty at $2,000 per acre, your 40 net acres will PAY YOU you $80,000 and 20% of any oil produced. Yes, the leasee will keep the 80% of any oil produced in exchange for that $80,000 they paid you AND the entire $462,500 they must pay for drilling the well. Unfortunately her suggested $2,000 per acre lease is also mistaken. Yet even at more realistic lease amounts the same premise applies, you can either A) Keep a working interest and be LIABLE for 100% of your share of well completion costs for a 100% of an unknown amount of oil (IF ANY) or, B) Lease your minerals and be PAID a cash bonus up front, not be liable for any well costs, and receive 20% of an unknown amount of oil (IF ANY).

There is not a hard and fast answer to the question "Should you keep a working interest". Yet for 90% plus of the folks who'd read this Golden Valley blog the answer is clearly, NO, you should not! Though as stated above don't take my advice, do your own research instead and look at the facts. Perhaps you can use a potential half million dollar tax write off. Personally I'm not at that point. Good luck.

Thank you Eastern MT!!

I am no expert but did my research and spoke to several knowledgeable "experts in the field" before we leased.

You are right on the money from what I have found.

Again. we took a deal because were ready and NOT greedy. $2000 bonus per acre is practically unheard of in the Beach area and waiting, well, I guess that is an option, but time is everyone's enemy. Afterall, the later you start, the later you gain. Holding out for a "better" deal, IF it ever comes along, is a gamble we decided not to take.

We aren't getting any younger! With a drill leadtime of 5 years, we wanted the clock to start running.

Thanks for putting things into a more intelligent, logical and practical perspective.

Thank you everyone for your responses. I feel better now knowing it's okay not to sign at the first offer and I wish success to everyone!!