We're Headed For $8 Natural Gas-Forbes

Morales and Chavez are both bad apples. But bad apples eventually rot away. That said, it sure is taking a long time for history to catch up with Fidel Castro.

I believe it was Tesoro that had big plans for the Bolivian gas fields. World events can sure change things in the oil and gas business.

I worry about Apache's investment in Egypt. They cannot even keep the gas duct to Jordan and Israel operational. Somebody keeps bombing it.

Robert Gill

I suppose that if the upside potential is great enough, you can stand the geo-political risk v reward.

http://cottenoilproperties.blogspot.com/2011/02/us-egyptian-relations-on-horns-of.html

Robert, check the date on the blog post.

Buddy

Just eight months prior to your post, BP sold it's concession in Egypt to Apache for .65 billion dollars. I guess they were getting out while they could.

Robert Gill

According to their Chairman, it was more to create a cash position because of the spill.

That mideast stuff just baffles me.



Robert V. Gill said:

Just eight months prior to your post, BP sold it's concession in Egypt to Apache for .65 billion dollars. I guess they were getting out while they could.

Robert Gill

They are flaring at least 25% of the gas in the Bakken. There is no shortage. The only way for $8 Nat gas anytime soon is a huge inflationary spike, imho. We probably will look more like the 90s where small surges will come and go until supplies fall much further.

Until we can get nat gas cars on the road, $8 cannot be justified. I do believe however that reserves quoted by most companies during the last 5 years were badly over-inflating. This is a reflection of quoting reserve estimates of "TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE" (TRR) reserves rather than "ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE" reserves. TRR's cannot be produced for long when the price is less than the finding & lifting costs. Typically in the Fayetteville, reserves being estimated were in the range of 30 BCF per unit, but our decline curves suggest economic reserves of less than 20 BCF and often less than 15 BCF. I think most gas companies would just be happy with $5...

Yes I say make the cars run on NG. Years ago pickups and tractors were using NG. Why not now? Stop ethanol,, we need the corn for food for the world. It is such a stupid premise to burn food and feed in our gas tanks. It also is no good for engine life. Switch to NG in trucks and cars, it could be done in just a few years. Then the price of NG would stabilize and everyone in the industry would make money and the USA would much more energy independent.

T L Shields said:

They are flaring at least 25% of the gas in the Bakken. There is no shortage. The only way for $8 Nat gas anytime soon is a huge inflationary spike, imho. We probably will look more like the 90s where small surges will come and go until supplies fall much further.

Until we can get nat gas cars on the road, $8 cannot be justified. I do believe however that reserves quoted by most companies during the last 5 years were badly over-inflating. This is a reflection of quoting reserve estimates of "TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE" (TRR) reserves rather than "ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE" reserves. TRR's cannot be produced for long when the price is less than the finding & lifting costs. Typically in the Fayetteville, reserves being estimated were in the range of 30 BCF per unit, but our decline curves suggest economic reserves of less than 20 BCF and often less than 15 BCF. I think most gas companies would just be happy with $5...

I suspect the switch to natural gas for automobiles will happen rapidly once we have in place a support system for refueling. We need a tax credit for converting gas stations from gasoline to natural gas. Once the infrastructure is in place it will simply be a matter of economics.

A seven dollar fill up versus a forty dollar fill up is a no brainer. The Pickens' Plan is the way to go.

This will free us up from the dependence upon the Middle East.

Robert Gill

Yes I agree. The obama admin. should be easily convinced to give tax credits ,,, or big loans they love green energy. Also they would only have to add extra fueling systems to the existing gasoline stations. No converting would be be needed because gas cars wont go away anytime soon, or ever for that matter. New cars and especially big rigs could be made to run on diesel and NG, or gas and NG. Seems like this country always lags behind on ideas that make good sense., but fast track ideas that are senseless and economically reckless.

Robert V. Gill said:

I suspect the switch to natural gas for automobiles will happen rapidly once we have in place a support system for refueling. We need a tax credit for converting gas stations from gasoline to natural gas. Once the infrastructure is in place it will simply be a matter of economics.

A seven dollar fill up versus a forty dollar fill up is a no brainer. The Pickens' Plan is the way to go.

This will free us up from the dependence upon the Middle East.

Robert Gill

I don't see the Obama administration doing anything to help the oil and gas industry. Remember, they wanted to crucify the industry. I am afraid they will do a "Cardenas" on us. In April Argentine President Fernandez expropriated the assets of Repsol, the Spanish Oil Company.

If Romney is elected, it will open up the western lands to exploration. We will see drilling everywhere but Temple Square.

Robert Gill

REMEMBER SOLYANDRA!

Robert,

Thank you. I nearly forgot all about the Spanish oil company. For those that do not know, all south American countries are quasi-socialistic.

Here is what I mean by that. We want you to invest your dollars. We want you to employ our people. But if you make too much money, we will take it from you and mismanage it and the indians still eat tortillas.



Robert V. Gill said:

I don't see the Obama administration doing anything to help the oil and gas industry. Remember, they wanted to crucify the industry. I am afraid they will do a "Cardenas" on us. In April Argentine President Fernandez expropriated the assets of Repsol, the Spanish Oil Company.

If Romney is elected, it will open up the western lands to exploration. We will see drilling everywhere but Temple Square.

Robert Gill

The Go Romney

Robert V. Gill said:

I don't see the Obama administration doing anything to help the oil and gas industry. Remember, they wanted to crucify the industry. I am afraid they will do a "Cardenas" on us. In April Argentine President Fernandez expropriated the assets of Repsol, the Spanish Oil Company.

If Romney is elected, it will open up the western lands to exploration. We will see drilling everywhere but Temple Square.

Robert Gill

Mr. Gill, I agree it would happen rapidly if the infrastructure were there. The only bad thing is who wants to build a trillion dollars worth of infrastructure for vehicles that have not been built yet. It's the chicken and egg problem.

Robert V. Gill said:

I suspect the switch to natural gas for automobiles will happen rapidly once we have in place a support system for refueling. We need a tax credit for converting gas stations from gasoline to natural gas. Once the infrastructure is in place it will simply be a matter of economics.

A seven dollar fill up versus a forty dollar fill up is a no brainer. The Pickens' Plan is the way to go.

This will free us up from the dependence upon the Middle East.

Robert Gill

True, and as it stands now, no one wants to invest money in any new venture because we do not know what tomorrow will bring. We are unsure of the tax structure or the attitude of government toward private enterprise.

The courts levy huge fines on corporations for minor infractions. Everyone is looking to sue someone.

Sadly, the best place to invest now is out of the country.

Robert Gill

I think the refueling stations that Shell is setting up for tractor/trailer trucks is a start and since they are guaranteeing the cost of fuel, for I believe 5 years, I think someone will take them up on it. Personally I would sell Americans on natural gas with fast vehicles with large displacement engines rather than econo box's. Make a competitor for the Hummer since fuel cost wouldn't be the limiting factor. I think if they just build natural gas fueled economy cars, why would anyone buy one over their tried and true 40 mpg honda /nissan/toyota that still has a decade of life left in it, but if you could drive an suv for close to the same cost of ownership as an economy car, I think you would have a greater market.

yep you are right sir. Make it sexy and fast ,, they will buy it .

r w kennedy said:

I think the refueling stations that Shell is setting up for tractor/trailer trucks is a start and since they are guaranteeing the cost of fuel, for I believe 5 years, I think someone will take them up on it. Personally I would sell Americans on natural gas with fast vehicles with large displacement engines rather than econo box's. Make a competitor for the Hummer since fuel cost wouldn't be the limiting factor. I think if they just build natural gas fueled economy cars, why would anyone buy one over their tried and true 40 mpg honda /nissan/toyota that still has a decade of life left in it, but if you could drive an suv for close to the same cost of ownership as an economy car, I think you would have a greater market.

At least they could make cars that are comfortable to travel in. Some of those little Asian cars are impossible for large people.

As for the heavy hauling industry, my bet is on Westport Engines. Time will tell.

Robert Gill

So I guess BP saw the end coming when they cashed out of Egypt. Now Apache is stuck with the problem.