I’m not sure how we get any of that back unless we put troops, and lots of them on deployment there. I doubt they just step aside since we got Maduro. Sounds like equipment is mostly junk now. Those tankers look clapped out too, floating rust buckets.
It’s kinda funny to me that the general public was not “HEARING” that Venezuela has the “Worlds Largest Oil Reserves”! No one knows for sure about that! As new technology develops in the future more Oil, Gas, lithium and other things will be discovered!
It will take a long while to get oil production back up in VZ, if that’s the goal. A long time. Like them or hate them, this is not a US administration with demonstrable long term consistency on anything wrt foreign policy AND there is an extremely high chance that the next administration is going to have completely different policies than the current one. In light of that, who is actually going to invest in VZ from the US on a long term project? We will see. My guess is fart + wind.
They have a whole bunch of very low gravity (i.e. thick) oil in the ground in VZ. Always have.
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Is the US banking on the oil industry or are we stratigically& aggressively protecting the VZ rare minerals from China’s domination?
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It’s not easy to invade or run a country of 54 million people, that for the most part don’t want you there….
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@fjonesiv you’ve sparked an interesting thread here.
Here’s a take that attempts to look at this by industry segment and time horizon.
Industry Impact of More Venezuelan Oil, by Segment and Time Horizon
| Segment | ~1 Year | 2–5 Years | 5+ Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream (E&P) | Negative (lower realized prices) | Mixed (capex discipline, adaptation) | Mixed (cost curves normalize) |
| Oilfield Services | Negative (drilling slows) | Mixed (international projects offset) | Mixed–Positive (global reinvestment cycle) |
| Midstream | Mixed (volumes matter more) | Mixed–Positive (trade flows expand) | Positive (higher throughput) |
| Downstream | Positive (cheaper feedstock) | Mixed (product price normalization) | Mixed (margin competition) |
| U.S. Mineral Owners | Negative (royalties price-linked) | Mixed (activity shifts) | Mixed (basin competitiveness) |
Most of the big companies that lost Venezuelan infrastructure went to Canada to develop the heavy crude fields there. Higher costs, but safer investment. It would be foolish to put huge money into Ven. after being burned a few times. Particularly with low WTI prices.
Possibly main reason to invade was to control more of the oil that China is buying.
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Perhaps but I don’t see how we can control anything unless we put troops or staff in country. Both of which would be targets for IEDs and assaults. I think we did it to mess with China and Iran. Big question is what’s next? Greenland or Iran, or Mexico. Most of the Fentanyl comes in from Mexico, so if he’s really wanting to do something about it, he’d have to order strikes against the places that make it. I suppose we know the locations of the fentanyl production.
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Unilaterally I too believe it is to hurt China.This country was leveled by Covid.