Comstock has leased about 500 acres in the JW Dodson A-238 Survey. In addition, they recently permitted a well, the KN Jensen 1H, in which the lateral is planned to run into the northeast quadrant of the Dodson Survey.
You said you had a lease offer from Sun Valley…was it actually Surprise Valley? They’ve done a lot of leasing for Comstock in Leon County.
Assuming your acreage is not in the unit for the Jensen well, there is still a good chance it could be included later when infill drilling takes place. The fact that you were offered $15,000 for your 1.5 acres suggests that it is likely.
Here are some ballpark numbers about your royalty potential. Comstock’s first well in this deep gas play, the Circle M Allocation 1H, has produced about 18.9 billion cubic feet of gas during its first three years of production. The reported gross revenue from gas sales is about $66.7 million. A 25% royalty would be $16.7 million. The unit is 1,150 acres, so if your 1.5 acres had been included, your share of that royalty would be 1.5/1150, which equals almost $22,000 in three years.
Keep in mind that there are no certainties. Your 1.5 acres may never be included in a unit, gas prices may drop, etc. In addition, production drops off steeply after the first year, so royalty growth will be much slower.
One last comment: It is an absolute necessity to get a cost-free royalty in this play. Comstock controls the pipelines and the treatment facilities in this area, and the marketing costs are currently running about $1.07/MCF with the realized gas sale price running around $3.00/MCF. Without a cost-free royalty, you will lose about 33% of what you could have had, and you don’t want to do that!
Good luck! By the way, other mineral owner have negotiated 25% royalties with Surprise Valley. If they push back, just point out that your 1.5 acres is tiny and unimportant in the overall financials.