With all this good advice, should I sell the Dow or purchase more as the stock market is going to break out to all time new highs and just where is the price of oil headed? I also had many tell me never sell any so I listened to them tell me how this was going to be a major producing well, turns out I got a dry hole that I am stuck with a lot of acreage of and where are all these people that told me never sell, probably off telling others don't sell anything, so don't let anyone tell you what is right or wrong as they are only guessing with your future. If you get a dry hole they won't be there to give you more of their so called good advice. Never listen to anyone who will not insure that what they are advising you, whether it be sell or not sell. I am certain the people at Continental Resources thought they are pretty smart cookies also and they drilled a multimillion dollar dry hole and I know they have many who are very knowledgeable yet we all lost tons.
Wow! Joe, who did you listen to? We should string them up. Advice is just that, advice, based on peoples experience and study. I am actually glad you are chining in with the reality check.
People actually pay for stock market advice and when it is wrong, you still have no recourse unless you can show that those who charged you for advice gave you that advice so they or a preferred client could profit. Advice here is free and could be priceless or worth as much as you paid for it. Joe, just for you, because I don't want to see you hurt again, I have special advice. Sell everything, if someone is in the process of drilling it, sell it before it's too late. If it's already producing, sell it because it may decline sharply or stop alltogether tomorrow. Sell everything and don't buy any more no matter how tempting, I don't want to see you hurt again.
All kidding aside, I see where a professionals advice and the average minerals owner would differ. The average mineral owner is less likely to make a good deal in selling their minerals because they don't know the business as a professional would. Also, to someone engaged in the buying and selling of minerals if you sell and are wrong, you just chalk it up to experience and try to do better on the next bunch of mineral acres you buy. If you aren't going to be buying any more mineral acres, if you sell, there probably is no next time.
Joe, I have always liked your sell half advice, I have recommended to people myself that if you need money, sell as much as you need to satisfy that need and keep the rest of your minerals because as a sharp lady recently said, "they don't eat much". Personally, I haven't signed a suicide pact with anything I own. I do get annoyed slightly by people who want to buy something that I am not done using such as one of my classic cars. If nobody want to buy a 50 or 60 year old car in the future, I guess I just missed out and I will have to live with that but as long as I am not driving them, they don't eat much.
Joe, while I have your attention, if I have your attention, is there some place online that you buy minerals from? I have had a few people ask lately about how to sell their minerals and I haven't been able to tell them and I have not yet made an extensive search. If someone really wants to sell, I would like them to be able to do so in the best ways they can. Thanks; Robert
Mineral Joe said:
With all this good advice, should I sell the Dow or purchase more as the stock market is going to break out to all time new highs and just where is the price of oil headed? I listened and got dry hole, so don't let anyone tell you what is right or wrong as they are only guessing with your future. If you get a dry hole they won't be there to give you more of their so called good advice.
Robert,
Your kidding, as you say it is, sounds to be so much more that you directed at me. If it made you feel better then I am happy for you, but you look much better when you are not kidding if that is what you call it. There is good advice and bad advice given as good advice on here. I told the truth to make a point and you ridiculed me for it.
Everyone can have recourse for anything should they choose.
As for stocks, oil or minerals, there is only guessing unless they can predict the future which if so I want to know how they do it. Advice, whether you pay for it or not is only someones guess, it may have been from a more educated perspective but the out come can be no more predictable as an absolute. There are only intelligent decisions and every other decision. Also, little owned was only theirs, most everything has been purchased from someone who sold. An old saying don't put all you eggs in one basket is most sensible.
Joe, you have my apology. Sometimes humor does not translate into text. I apologise for offending you. I actually thought the all kidding aside comment would make clear that I was not serious, just in case the we should string them up comment wasn't a big enough clue that I was not serious. The first two paragraphs were tongue in cheek. I thought I was replying in the same vein as your post, which seemed as though it was belittling all this advice, but I added all kidding aside so it would be clear I was joking.
The last 3 paragraphs were serious intent, including liking your idea of sell half if as you say, you don't want all of your eggs in one basket. I was also serious about the difference between a professional who buys and sells and the mineral owner who probably lacks knowledge and could be as much at risk in selling their minerals as they could be if they were never drilled and these people may never buy minerals and have a second chance. Maybe that is why so many mineral owners say never sell.
I am curious though, whose advice you took, since you assure me you told the truth? Did you have misgivings and some one won you over and sold you on an alternate course?
Another funny thing about advice is timing. Someone could have given you advice about a stock that was good advice ten years ago but may not be good advice today.
As for crystal balls, mine has been working pretty well for me. I didn't want my minerals drilled in 2008, I was right I got 4 mediocre wells in an area good enough that a well drilled last year in the same area has twice the production because they now know how to complete the wells better. Everyone told me I needed to lease, I'm about to have a working interest in a good well still producing 300 bbl a day which I think will pay me alot more than leasing and the other wells will pay out even if it's not as fast. Everybody has a crystal ball but they take alot of polishing. You polish your crystal ball by studying all the information you can possibly collect and you act according to what the ball tells you. Get advice from someone elses crystal ball at your own risk and I wouldn't do it unless you know they have their crystal ball polished very clear. I wish you had asked me about Continental Resources, I would have told you in my opinion they are hacks, that they make up in volume because they don't take time to get it exactly right. Ask me about my 4 mediocre wells in a great area drilled by Continental. I can also tell you it is frequently not a good thing to be first. Let someone else be the guinea pig until they have it down. There is an operator I would trust to get it right the first time if anyone could, it is not Continental or Kodiak for that matter.
When you ask if you should sell or not, you are polling the audience. The audience could be wrong but you are getting collected wisdom. If the don't sell it advice was so wrong, where are all the people saying they wish they had sold? Joe, I think your view is appreciated, but it is outnumbered. If you are like me, being outnumbered is not a problem, If I think I'm right and nobody can show me where I am wrong, public opinion isn't very important to me. I've said before that you are not on my friends list although I think you should be, I've never sent you a friend request because I thought you didn't need my help and I didn't want you to feel you had to accept. Joe, you yourself have supplied me with polishing cloths for my crystal ball and you may not have even realised when you did so. I was extremely happy when I was able to inform you about the law on interest for late royalty payment in ND and you reported that they did pay you the interest. I was happy because I had been able to give a little back. I will try to keep my smart alec side in check where you are concerned in the future but I suggest you reread your own post and see if it is a dry recitation of facts or if it sounds somewhat sour. Have a great day; Robert
Your decision should depend on your own unique situation, including whether you have an immediate need of funds, or want to keep the minerals to pass on to your family. My mentor taught me that mineral interests are lottery tickets that never expire. If you inherited them, you got a free lottery ticket. You can sell your lottery ticket at any time.
More information is needed to answer your questions of lease terms & value. Do you own 100% of the minerals? That makes a difference in the value on the market. If you want to learn about minerals, read all you can about the subject, generally. It is a niche with its own language and rules. Participate in forums like this one, and especially local discussions with other mineral owners in your area. That will give you a ballpark idea of the value of your minerals and terms others close to you are getting. Good luck with your adventure. I inherited minerals in Texas. Give me a call 281-380-9580 or email servingamerica@gmail.com if you want to have a conversation.
Thanks Pete for your advice. Most people seem to agree, and those who didn't offered their reasons. What I've learned from this group has been great. The bummer is that it was all after the fact. The Lease is a done deal. Now, it seems the area is active and equipment has actually been brought onsite.
Someone suggested considering an auction to sell my rights. Not sure how complicated that would be. Have you ever done that?