Isn’t everyone an expert?
So it’s Pioneer operated. No HZ development or permits. Probability of HZ development in next 20 years = Good. Probability of HZ development in next 5 years = Not that good.
Side note:
If people are willing to buy them, they are BETTING that what they buy (on aggregate) will make a lot more over the long haul than what they are offering you. It’s a bet. There is risk. They de-risk it by buying multiple tracks in multiple units. Spread out your bets. Because it’s kind of binary. You get a bunch of wells and its worth 4 times what you paid for it. You get zero wells and its worth, well, zero (or the value of the verticals). Despite the boom the industry has gone through from 2014-2019 there are far more units with zero wells than with a bunch. Anybody can point at a lease with a ton of wells on it and say “see, Dad was right, don’t sell your minerals”. Nobody talks about the far more folks who sold for $15k/NRA and are on the beach somewhere and there are still zero wells on their land. In the end, yes, I think the math works out in favor of the buyers, but its a few home runs and lots of strikeouts near-term. Sorry, end of speech.
Your acreage marked on map below. There are 3 Pioneer permits (approved July 20) in the E/2 of Sec 3/10. Which may mean Pioneer is going to drill there. Which may be why you are getting more offers. Or maybe everyone always just gets offers. As I said above, if your tract eventually ends up looking like one of the ones covered in yellow lines its worth a decent amount. Right now Pioneer has 250 approved permits and is running 7 rigs, so they have about 3 years worth of drilling permitted. So you’d think it will take a while before they get anywhere that is not currently permitted.
On a risked basis, I’d say a fair price in the current environment is about $8k per net royalty acre. So if you are leased at 25% royalty, that is $16k per net mineral acre. Your mileage may vary.
Good luck.
