I think we are probably talking 10 million plus at the moment for gas alone. That doesn't mean that is all they can produce. I don't know how many days the well may have been shut in [not producing], what the BTU factor of the gas is? Dry Gas usually has a BTU factor of 1, they higher the BTU factor, the more valuable liquids are stripped out to make the dry gas. The gas from my own wells have a BTU factor of 1.4 and I generally received double the price per MCF that dry gas sold for and this before they built a plant to turn the ethane into a precursor to plastic. The actual value of the gas could be double the Henry HUB price but I named it just for a benchmark, a known quantity for pricing. Undoubtedly your gas is worth more than that, it was more to set a lower limit.
So 10 million plus can easily become 15 million or 20 million counting NGL and there should be some oil. If your gas were marketed to Japan and there was no sleight of hand like selling the production to the operators subsidiary company that sells the gas to a foreign market, we could raise the bar to possibly 30 million dollars. I would feel pretty good about a well making a million dollars a month.
About the treating and transport. Many people sign leases that have them paying for their proportionate share of those expenses.
I freely admit I don't know the law in Alaska or if you found in the law somewhere that you are entitled to 12.5% if you do not sign a lease. I know that in N. Dakota that leaving aside all the legal language I am entitled to 16% royalty as unleased. Since I don't know Alaska law, I don't know if your royalty would be burdened by expenses, that is why I mentioned it and you might check if there is any uncertainty.
So we have a bottom of $10.6 million and a not unreasonable top of possibly $30 million for 30 months production with more wells on the way and much investment.
If we knew how much downtime the well had it could make a difference also. Some wells aren't very impressive when they are new. Some need repairs and tweaking. Possibly the pipeline they are tapped into doesn't have enough extra capacity and they are only producing what they can move? O&G companies are so secretive, sometimes it's hard to discern the reason for things they do. From what you have told me I can tell that the O&G company likes it and that would be good enough for me, for now.