# Does a decline in gas production foretell additional wells?
**URL:** https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/t/does-a-decline-in-gas-production-foretell-additional-wells/41627
**Category:** Oil & Gas Field Operations
**Created:** [February 12, 2019, 10:10pm UTC](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/t/does-a-decline-in-gas-production-foretell-additional-wells/41627 "2019-02-12T22:10:56Z")
**Posts on this page:** 3
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Traveler](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/u/Traveler)
#### Post date: [February 12, 2019, 10:10pm UTC](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/t/does-a-decline-in-gas-production-foretell-additional-wells/41627/1 "2019-02-12T22:10:56Z")
Our royalties were averaging around $800 per month from both Cimarex and Chevron for about 4 years, but the past few months have declined to around $350 per month from both operators. However, the offers to buy the mineral rights continue to skyrocket despite these lower royalties.
I do realize that the first 5 years are the most productive for a well (the wells have been in production for about 4 years). For those in the know, is declining production from previously quite stable producing gas wells a general indication of impending drilling/wells to be conducted nearby? I mean, do producers “cap” production a bit on existing wells in order to ready for drilling into another layer, or nearby?
Property specifics detailed below:
43 acres - T1S Block 59 Section 40 A-2297 T and P RR/Shelton AE Well: Street Sense 40 Unit No. 1H 10 acres - T1S Block 59 Section 39 A-2705 T and P RR Well: Stone Street 46 Unit No. 3H
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### Author:  [@anon9561486](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/u/anon9561486)
#### Post date: [February 12, 2019, 11:46pm UTC](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/t/does-a-decline-in-gas-production-foretell-additional-wells/41627/2 "2019-02-12T23:46:28Z")
The offers continue to skyrocket because really good wells have been drilled in neighboring sections. I wouldn’t sell that acreage unless I desperately needed cash, and certainly not under $30,000 per NMA.
Declining production is no guarantee that a new well will be drilled across your tract and generally is just a natural part of the well. Sometimes producers will shut in nearby wells during a frac/completion so the pressure doesn’t damage them. But a quick look at your wells says it’s just part of the decline rate.
Decline rates for horizontal wells can be 70% in the first year, with another 50% drop the next year, and a long tail end of slower decline. Natural gas production usually drops off a lot slower from horizontal wells than oil production. The Street Sense and Stone Street wells both had very gentle declines on their gas production. For a visual of typical decline rate, see the red line in this graph: [http://www.getfilings.com/sec-filings/120326/Laredo-Petroleum-Holdings-Inc\_8-K/g79241mmi021.gif](http://www.getfilings.com/sec-filings/120326/Laredo-Petroleum-Holdings-Inc_8-K/g79241mmi021.gif)
Sorry. I think I went on a bit of a tangent.
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### Author:  [@MRFAdmin\_SV](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/u/MRFAdmin_SV)
#### Post date: [January 11, 2025, 7:11pm UTC](https://www.mineralrightsforum.com/t/does-a-decline-in-gas-production-foretell-additional-wells/41627/3 "2025-01-11T19:11:44Z")